\u3000\u30 Shaanxi Zhongtian Rocket Technology Co.Ltd(003009) 73 Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) )
Events
On the evening of April 24, 2022, the company released the 2021 annual report and the first quarterly report of 2022: the company’s revenue in 2021 was 2.817 billion yuan, an increase of 55.66% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 283 million yuan, an increase of 21.98% at the same time. In 2022q1, the revenue was 630 million yuan, with a decrease of 8.83%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 40 million yuan, with a decrease of 45.29%.
Key investment points
2021 ended smoothly, and the rising cost put pressure on the performance of the first quarter
In 2021, the company’s revenue was 2.817 billion yuan, an increase of 55.66% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 283 million yuan, an increase of 21.98% at the same time. Among them, 2021q4 was 856 million yuan (with an increase of 40%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 86 million yuan (with an increase of 17%), which fell behind the central position of the previous performance forecast. The performance was in line with expectations. The company fully resisted the pressure on costs and expenses caused by the price rise of bulk raw materials such as oil, investment in base construction and channel expansion, excess performance fund and share based payment provision, so as to achieve steady growth of performance. In 2022q1, the revenue was 630 million yuan, with a decrease of 8.83%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 40 million yuan, with a decrease of 45.29%, which was caused by the rise in the cost of raw materials and the withdrawal of nearly 20 million yuan of equity incentive expenses.
The company’s gross profit margin in 2021 was 34.90% (with a decrease of 3.4pct), of which 2021q4 was 34.49% (with an increase of 3.4pct); The net interest rate in 2021 is 10.05% (minus 3PCT), of which 2021q4 is 10% (minus 2pct). The gross profit margin of 2022q1 was 33.09%, with a decrease of 3.4pct, which was caused by the rise of raw materials; 2022q1 net interest rate is 6.36%, with a decrease of 6.29pct.
The quantity of large single products such as hemp and potato increased in large quantities, and the volume and price of products increased all year round
In terms of products, in 2021, the revenue of frozen baked goods was 1.718 billion yuan (with an increase of 80%), accounting for 61% (with an increase of 8pct) and the gross profit margin was 36.59% (with a decrease of 4pct). We expect that large single products such as cassava and doughnuts will continue to be sold in large quantities and contribute to large revenue; Among them, the revenue of 2021q4 was 543 million yuan (with an increase of 72%). In 2021, the raw materials of baked goods will be 1.096 billion yuan (29% increase at the same time), accounting for 39% (8 PCT decrease at the same time), and the gross profit margin will be 32.32% (3 PCT decrease at the same time); Among them, the revenue of 2021q4 was 306 million yuan (an increase of 168%). Fine dismantling of raw materials for baked goods, cream revenue of 471 million yuan in 2021 (with an increase of 27%) and gross profit margin of 38.08% (with a decrease of 4pct); The revenue of fruit products was 218 million yuan (with an increase of 29%) and the gross profit margin was 28.19% (with an increase of 1.7 PCT); The revenue of sauce was 184 million yuan (with an increase of 33%) and the gross profit margin was 21.82% (with a decrease of 7pct); The revenue of other baking raw materials was 224 million yuan (with an increase of 28%) and the gross profit margin was 32.84% (with a decrease of 1.5pct). In 2022q1, the revenue of frozen baked food was 372million yuan (an increase of 11%), accounting for 59% (an increase of 1.2pct). The revenue of baking raw materials was 257 million yuan (with an increase of 5.6%), accounting for 41% (with a decrease of 1.2pct).
From the perspective of volume and price, the sales volume of frozen baked goods in 2021 was 78000 tons (with an increase of 69%), and the corresponding ton price was 22000 yuan / ton (with an increase of 6.6%); The sales volume of cream is 37000 tons (with an increase of 25%), and the corresponding ton price is 12700 yuan / ton (with an increase of 1.4%); The sales volume of fruit products is 10800 tons (with an increase of 29%), and the corresponding ton price is 15700 yuan / ton (with an increase of 0.3%); The sales volume of sauce is 12500 tons (with an increase of 25%), and the corresponding ton price is 11700 yuan / ton (with an increase of 7%).
In terms of sub regions, the revenue of South China in 2021 was 1.229 billion yuan (with an increase of 90%), accounting for 44% (with an increase of 8pct); The revenue in East China was 716million yuan (34% increase at the same time), accounting for 25% (4pct decrease at the same time); The revenue of central China was 261 million yuan (with an increase of 46%), accounting for 9% (basically the same); 210 million yuan in North China (with an increase of 36%), accounting for 7.5% (with a decrease of 1PCT); The revenue of Southwest China was 219 million yuan (with an increase of 40%), accounting for 7.8% (with a decrease of 1PCT); The revenue of Northwest China was 89 million yuan (with an increase of 24%), accounting for 3% (with a decrease of 1PCT); The revenue of Northeast China was 91 million yuan (with an increase of 37%), accounting for 3% (with a decrease of 0.5pct).
In terms of distribution channels, the distribution revenue in 2021 was 1.835 billion yuan (with an increase of 30%), accounting for 65% (with a decrease of 13 PCT); The direct sales revenue was 960 million yuan (with an increase of 145%), accounting for 34% (with an increase of 12 PCT); The retail revenue was 20 million yuan (with an increase of 140%), accounting for 1% (with an increase of 0.3pct). By the end of 2021, the company had more than 1000 sales personnel, marketing networks all over the country, more than 2700 cooperative customers and more than 50000 end customers.
Steady progress was made in capacity construction, with both cost reduction and efficiency increase and channel sinking
In terms of production capacity, in 2021, the actual production capacity of frozen and baked food was 93700 tons (with an increase of 76%), the utilization rate of production capacity was 81.13%, and the production capacity under construction was 45900 tons. The production lines of three factories in Zhejiang and Nansha production bases were optimized and upgraded, and the overall production capacity was improved. The annual design capacity of Henan Weihui project reached 26300 tons after it was put into operation; In 2021, the actual capacity of cream (including tarting liquid) will be 37500 tons (an increase of 14% at the same time), the capacity utilization rate will be 87.21%, and the capacity under construction will be 60000 tons; In 2021, the actual capacity of fruit products will be 13200 tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be 57.64%; The actual capacity of sauce is 28500 tons, and the capacity utilization rate is 100%. At present, the company has successively established five production bases and seven production plants in Sanshui, Foshan, Zengcheng, Guangzhou, Nansha, Changxing, Zhejiang and Weihui, Henan.
In 2022, the company will continue to optimize product raw materials, actively expand categories, and increase the outsourcing of some marketable varieties for combined sales; In the next three years, it is planned to expand the production capacity in South China, East China and North China and form the layout of six large production bases. At the cost side, reduce costs and increase efficiency, further sink into the second and third tier cities and even Township markets, optimize the dealer system, and develop channels such as catering, supermarkets and convenience stores.
Profit forecast
At present, the company continues to promote production capacity construction, and large single products such as hemp and potato continue to be sold in large quantities. The cost pressure is expected to be relieved and the market share continues to increase. We expect that the EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.76/2.35/2.83 yuan, and the current share price corresponding to PE will be 48 / 36 / 30 times respectively. It will be covered for the first time and given a “recommended” investment rating.
