\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 516 Fangda Carbon New Material Co.Ltd(600516) )
Core view
The performance of industry leaders improved. In 2021, under the background of double carbon, electric furnace steel was supported by policies, with strong willingness to start work, and the demand for graphite electrode improved. In the second half of the year, the industry supply was affected by power restriction, and the price of graphite electrode bottomed out and warmed up. The company benefited from the improvement of supply and demand in the industry, further promoted refined management and cost reduction and efficiency increase, and the total operating revenue and net profit increased. In 2021, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 4.652 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.44%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 1.085 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 98.11%.
The volume of carbon products has increased. In 2021, the company produced 169300 tons of graphite electrodes, a year-on-year increase of 9.23%; 19300 tons of carbon bricks, a year-on-year decrease of 25.77%. Under the adverse impact of rising raw material prices, the company had outstanding advantages in integrated layout, and the gross profit margin increased by 5.23 percentage points to 29.48%. In terms of special graphite, the company has been deeply engaged in the R & D and manufacturing of isostatic pressure graphite, breaking the foreign monopoly and becoming an important supplier of Chinese photovoltaic enterprises. In 2021, Chengdu carbon achieved a net profit of 246 million yuan, an increase of 85.19% year-on-year. In addition, Meishan Rongguang's ultra-high power graphite electrode production line with a design capacity of 50000 tons has been put into production, and Changfeng Fangda's ultra-high power graphite electrode production line with a design capacity of 50000 tons is orderly promoting the construction of the production line, which is planned to be put into operation in the first half of this year. The release of graphite electrode capacity will further enhance the company's market share.
The price of graphite electrode is expected to continue to rise. In the first quarter, driven by raw materials, the price of graphite electrode continued to rise, the profits of the industry were limited, a large number of enterprises suffered losses, and the power to start was insufficient. At the same time, due to the shortage of negative electrode graphitization resources, the processing fee continues to rise. At present, it has risen to 260 Jinzai Food Group Co.Ltd(003000) 0 yuan / ton, attracting some graphite electrode production capacity to switch to negative electrode graphitization. Under the epidemic situation, the demand for graphite electrodes in electric furnaces declined, but there was a demand for replenishment in the later stage. At present, the inventory of graphite electrode enterprises is also at a reasonable level. In the short term, the price may rise steadily under the support of cost.
Risk warning: the construction progress of the project is less than expected; Power and production restriction policies affect the operating rate of the company; The price of graphite electrode and raw materials fluctuated more than expected
Investment suggestion: as an industry leader, the company has prominent industrial advantages, capacity improvement and product upgrading bring growth attributes to the company. Taking into account the price changes of various products and raw materials, we slightly raised the original performance forecast. It is estimated that the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 6.35/73.9/83.6 billion yuan (6.71/78.1/ - billion yuan in the original forecast), the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 1.71/19.3/2.19 billion yuan (1.65/2.01-billion yuan in the original forecast), and the annual growth rate of profit will be 57.2% / 13.2% / 13.4% respectively; Diluted EPS is 0.45/0.51/0.57 yuan, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price is 16.4/14.5/12.8x, maintaining the "buy" rating.
