\u3000\u30 Beijing Telesound Electronics Co.Ltd(003004) 28 Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co.Ltd(300428) )
Event: the company released its 2021 annual report and 2022q1 quarterly report. In 2021, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 18.634 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 450 million yuan. In 2022q1, the company achieved a revenue of 5.538 billion yuan, a synchronous increase of 29.12% and a month on month increase of 0.14%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 135 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.77% and a month on month increase of 18.58%.
Comments:
The performance of 2022q1 continued to improve, and the amortization of equity incentive was 9.91 million. The net profit attributable to the parent company excluding equity incentive expenses was 143 million yuan, with a synchronous increase of 7.1% and a month on month increase of 26.00%. According to the income tax calculation of 15%, the amortization expense of equity incentive of 2022q1 company is expected to be 9.91 million yuan.
The company's performance in 2022 is expected to exceed expectations
(1) Tianshi: the devaluation of RMB is good for the company's export. Since March, the RMB has gradually depreciated. Under the strong expectation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, there is still room for further downward movement of the RMB. The company's wheel business mainly involves export and will benefit from the devaluation of RMB.
(2) geographical advantage: Lun aluminum and Shanghai aluminum are upside down, thickening the company's profits. Since 2022, Lun aluminum has continued to strengthen, and the price of Lun aluminum has continued to be higher than that of Shanghai aluminum, making aluminum export profitable. Since the company's pricing is based on m-2 and M-1, Q1 does not reflect this part of profit, and Q2 is expected to reflect it.
(3) Renhe: the purchase and sales shall be settled synchronously, and the sea freight shall be borne by the customer. In 2021, due to the delay before purchase and sale and the rise of sea freight, the company's performance was lower than expected. At present, these problems have been solved. Before the sea freight was borne by the company, the customer also needs to bear part of it; At the same time, the company's purchase and sales pricing are synchronized, and the system is more reasonable.
Four arrows fired at the same time, and the growth of the company began to accelerate
(1) recycled cast aluminum alloy sector: the proportion of raw material end recycled aluminum continues to increase. In the recycled aluminum sector, the company achieved a revenue of 11.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.60%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 220 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 79.71%. In 2021, the company purchased 549100 tons of recycled aluminum, accounting for 63.3% of the total sales, an increase of 5.5pct over the same period last year.
(2) functional master alloy sector: the production capacity is gradually implemented and the layout of high-end products. The company achieved a revenue of 1.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56.06%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 108 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.02%, mainly due to the increase in the sales of high-end grain refiners and aerospace grade special master alloys and other high value-added products, which further strengthened the profitability of the company.
(3) aluminum alloy wheel sector: stabilize and improve, and enter the new energy vehicle industry chain. The company achieved a revenue of 5.243 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.46%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 122 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 49.87%. The main reason for the decline is the sharp rise in the prices of raw materials aluminum and silicon, and the lag in the settlement of the company's purchase and sales prices. At present, Lun aluminum's export profit and the depreciation of RMB are expected to increase in 2022.
(4) new energy materials continue to develop, and the hexafluoride project has begun to be constructed. The company's new lithium hexafluorophosphate and other projects in Shandong have achieved energy assessment and environmental assessment, and the construction of infrastructure has begun. At the same time, the company is also stepping up the construction of phase II project.
Maintain the "buy" rating, and the target price is 48.4 yuan. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022, 2023 and 2024 will be 892, 1248 and 2009 million yuan respectively, giving a target market value of 30 billion yuan in the next 12 months, corresponding to about 24 times of PE in 2023. Considering the dilution of equity incentive, the corresponding target price is 48.4 yuan, 173% more than the closing price of 17.74 yuan on April 24, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: epidemic risk; The implementation progress of the project is less than expected; The demand for new energy is less than expected.
