\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 888 China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) )
Key investment points
In the past 21 years, the proportion of taxable goods decreased slightly by 2pct, and the total performance contribution of Hainan may be nearly 90%. The annual revenue of the company was 67.676 billion yuan / + 28.67%, and the performance was 9.654 billion yuan / + 57.23%. 1) By category, the revenue of taxable goods is 24 billion yuan / + 22%, accounting for 35.47% / -2pct, slightly lower than that of last year. Among them, the growth rate of supplementary purchase business in Hainan outlying islands is expected to be more obvious. 2) The revenue of Hainan is 47.1 billion yuan / + 57.19%, of which the revenue of duty-free shops in Sanya is 35.5 billion yuan / + 66.58%, the performance is 4.168 billion yuan / + 40.46%, and the revenue / performance in the second half of the year is + 11% / - 32% respectively, mainly due to the impact of epidemic & discount; Haimian achieved revenue of 15.96 billion yuan / + 61%, and performance of 793 million yuan / + 20.75%. The combined revenue of the two companies is more than 47.1 billion yuan, mainly due to offset between subsidiaries. 3) On the first day, Shanghai achieved a revenue of 12.491 billion yuan / - 9.0%, with a performance of 690 million yuan / - 44.66%, of which the revenue in the second half of the year was - 2%. 4) On the day, China achieved a revenue of 1.907 billion yuan / - 40.44% in 21 years, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 705 million yuan and a loss of 790 million yuan in 20 years, mainly due to the return of rent of the capital airport from February 11, 20 to February 10, 2021 (the amount affected is 1.14 billion yuan). At the same time, the company's 22-year capital airport rent withdrawal passenger flow base is calculated based on 20 years, and the drag of rent on performance is weakened. 5) 22q1: the revenue was 16.782 billion yuan / - 7.45%, and the performance was 2.563 billion yuan / - 9.99% (including 2.4 billion yuan from January to February). Since the middle and late March, the passenger flow has decreased sharply, and the daily sales of 10 duty-free stores in Hainan are expected to be less than 100 million yuan. At the same time, considering that Haitang Bay closed for five days in March, the performance of the first quarter is basically in line with expectations, but it falls below the lower boundary of the previous estimate, which is mainly due to the slight increase of rigid fees and discounts.
The gross profit margin of 22q1 increased by 7.6pct month on month, significantly improved, and the overall net profit margin was 15.28%, which was basically the same as that of 21q1.
1) gross profit margin: the gross profit margin of the company's commodity sales industry in the whole year of 21 years was 33.08% / - 7.14pct, which was 49.55% in 19 years. There is still a large space for repair. The gross profit margin of tax exempt / taxable businesses decreased by 7.08/7.96pct year-on-year respectively. The gross profit margin of the company in 22q1 was 34%, up 7.6pct month on month compared with 21q4, and the gross profit margin was significantly improved. At present, from the perspective of discount trend, due to sales pressure, the discount intensity in March increased slightly from January to February, but on the whole, it did not return to the level of 21q3-q4; It also verifies to a certain extent the "benefit from management" mentioned in the company's previous communication.
2) net interest rate (net interest rate attributable to the parent, the same below): if the company does not consider the return of airport rent and income tax in the second half of the year, the net interest rate decreases (the net interest rate of 21q4 is 6.4%, while that of 21q1 is 15.7%). However, the company's 22q1 net profit margin has improved significantly, returning to 15% + (15.28%). Considering that the revenue in March this year is expected to decline significantly year-on-year, which is dragged down by the corresponding rigid expenses, if the passenger flow & sales are normal, we think the company's net profit margin is expected to be higher than 15.3%. After the passenger flow is repaired in the future, the corresponding profitability is expected to continue to improve.
3) split: ① Hainan: regardless of wholesale deduction & income tax return and other factors, the overall net interest rate of Hainan in the second half of the year was 7.5%, down 4.2pct compared with the first half of the year, mainly due to the increase of discount promotion & online proportion. 22q1 is expected to achieve significant repair. ② Shanghai in the first half of the day: the net interest rate (equity) of Shanghai in the first half of the day was 2.3%, down 7pct from the first half of the year.
Member empowerment is expected to continue to stimulate consumption, strengthen the supply chain capacity, turn to fine management, reduce costs and improve efficiency, and do not rule out upstream mergers and acquisitions of the industrial chain to enhance the competitiveness of luxury goods in the future. The company actively promotes the construction of membership system. The number of members has increased from 10 million in 20 years to 20 million at the end of 21 years. It is expected to reach 26 million in 22 years, and the proportion of member sales has increased to 87%. The increase of repurchase rate continues to drive the consumption of high-quality customers. The company continues to strengthen supply chain management. At present, the first phase of Hainan International Logistics Center has been delivered and the second phase has been under construction. At the same time, it continues to promote the construction of East Logistics Center and Qianhai Asia Pacific Center warehouse, so as to improve the efficiency and management level of supply chain. The construction of two incremental properties is progressing steadily. At present, the brand investment promotion of Haikou international duty-free city has confirmed cooperation with more than 500 brands; At the same time, the company timely promotes the listing of H shares, which does not rule out that it will timely carry out vertical or horizontal mergers and acquisitions of the industrial chain for upstream brands and duty-free operators, so as to improve the operation and procurement capacity of luxury goods.
Investment suggestion: the short-term epidemic disturbs the recovery process. The company's performance in 22-24 years is expected to be 10.2/144/18 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 8% / 35% / 34% respectively. The current stock price corresponds to 23-year pe27x, which is relatively low and continues to be optimistic.
Risk warning: covid-19 pneumonia epidemic situation is repeated, macroeconomic fluctuations, market competition intensifies, and the project construction progress is less than expected
