\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 963 Yueyang Forest & Paper Co.Ltd(600963) )
The company released the first quarter report of 2022. 22q1 company achieved revenue of 1.669 billion yuan (- 15.0%), net profit attributable to parent company of 124 million yuan (- 25.6%), net profit not attributable to parent company of 113 million yuan (- 26.5%).
Forestry carbon sequestration has expanded steadily, and the logic of long-term growth remains unchanged. Thanks to its core advantages in technical team, central enterprise background and forestry resources, the company’s carbon sequestration cooperation projects and scale have grown steadily. In March 22, Senhai carbon sequestration signed a 1 million mu project contract with Guizhou Jiangkou Fanjingshan Investment Holding Co., Ltd., marking the gradual opening of the company’s forestry carbon sequestration cooperation in Southwest China; Up to now, the total contracted area of the company has reached 4.7 million mu (2 million mu of its own, 1.2 million mu of enterprise cooperation and 1.5 million mu of local cooperation). With the gradual improvement of the requirements for unit energy consumption and unit carbon emission under the background of “carbon neutralization”, the scarcity logic of forestry carbon sink remains unchanged; According to our calculation, assuming that the company’s plan of signing a total of 50 million mu of forestry carbon sequestration by the end of 2025 reaches the expectation, it will contribute more than 1.2 billion yuan of carbon sequestration development income and have broad growth space.
Profitability is repaired month on month, and the profit elasticity is expected to be released in the second half of the year. 22q1’s gross profit margin was 18.7% (YoY -2.4pct, mom + 11.5pct), and its net profit margin was 7.5% (YoY -1.0pct, mom + 10.3pct). The profitability was significantly repaired month on month, and the year-on-year pressure was mainly due to the pressure on energy costs. Under the influence of short-term events such as global shutdown and production reduction, the price of 22q1 coniferous pulp / broad-leaved pulp increased by + 2.1% / + 3.9% year on year and + 11.9% / + 12.0% month on month; In addition, the Q1 epidemic has led to insufficient commencement of municipal garden business, and the profit contribution is expected to be small. The company has reduced production costs through energy structure adjustment and fine control. The paper price has a strong supporting effect on the cost, and the import and export scissors gap has expanded (imports have decreased and exports have increased). The price of 22q1 double glue / copper sector is + 7% / + 2% month on month, and the profit shows month on month repair.
Excellent expense rate control and stable cash flow. From the perspective of expense performance, the expense rate of 22q1 company during the period is 11.7% (+ 0.2pct), of which the sales expense rate is 1.4% (- 2.6pct), the management expense rate is 4.9% (+ 1.1pct), the financial expense rate is 2.3% (+ 1.8pct), and the R & D expense rate is 3.1% (- 0.1pct). The expense rate remains stable as a whole. 22q1 company’s net operating cash flow was 22million yuan (year-on-year -07million yuan), and the cash flow performance was stable; By the end of 22q1, the company’s accounts receivable turnover days were 33.94 days (year-on-year + 4.64 days); The turnover days of accounts payable were 102.04 days (year-on-year + 16.72 days); The inventory turnover days were 360.29 days (year-on-year + 43.28 days). Affected by the epidemic, the delivery was blocked, and the turnover efficiency decreased.
Investment rating: the company’s profit is in the chain repair channel. In the carbon neutral era, relying on the multiple advantages of technical team & Background & resources, the contracted area is steadily expanded, and there is a large space for development and growth. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 720 million yuan, 850 million yuan and 910 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 142%, 18% and 7%, and the corresponding PE will be 15.6x/13.3x/12.4x respectively.
Risk tips: repeated outbreaks, higher prices of raw materials than expected, lower carbon neutralization policy than expected, and intensified competition for carbon sequestration development.
