\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 786 Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) )
Event: the company released the 21st Annual Report and the first quarterly report of the 22nd year. In 2021, the revenue was 2.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of – 3.68%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 389 million, a year-on-year increase of – 24.4%. The revenue of 22q1 was 736 million, a year-on-year increase of – 2.76%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 9164.7w, a year-on-year increase of – 24.67%.
The year 2021 is under pressure. In 2021, the revenue was 2.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of – 3.68%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 389 million, a year-on-year increase of – 24.4%. In 2021, the company’s gross profit margin was 34.56%, with a year-on-year increase of -1.84pct due to various factors such as core shortage and material price rise. The sales, management, R & D and financial rates were 2.16/5.81/10.83/0.41% respectively, with a total of 19.21%, a year-on-year increase of + 3.6pct, especially the R & D rate has reached 10.83%, which is mainly due to the significant increase of research projects and personnel. The annual net profit margin attributable to the parent company was 13.86%, with a year-on-year decrease of -3.8pct, and the decline of profit was more than that of revenue.
The epidemic situation in many places of 22q1 and the phased shutdown of the Winter Olympic Games still affect sales. The revenue of 22q1 was 736 million, a year-on-year increase of – 2.76%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 9164.7w, a year-on-year increase of – 24.67%. The gross profit margin in a single quarter was 33.36 PCT, a year-on-year increase of – 2.21 PCT. The four fees were 17.85%, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.84pct. Among the four fees, the R & D rate reached 11.32%, with a significant year-on-year increase of + 2.94pct. The final net interest rate attributable to the parent company was 12.45%, with a year-on-year increase of -3.62pct.
How to view the development of the company at this stage. According to the information disclosed by the company, it has been extended from a single lamp controller to more product series, including chassis domain controller and body domain controller. The R & D boundary has been expanding. By the end of 2021, there were 129 projects under research and 170 million controllers with a life cycle. The average unit price was calculated at 100 yuan, and there were about 17 billion orders on hand. In addition, 59 new projects will be obtained in 2021, with a total of 55 million controllers. It is precisely because the company is constantly expanding its product line and R & D capacity, so it needs to invest enough R & D personnel before new projects bring revenue, which will lead to a sharp increase in phased R & D rates and an increase in amortization. The company experienced four chip price increases in 2021. The operating environment was extremely bad, and the gross profit margin could be maintained at more than 33%, down only 1.8pct year-on-year. However, the R & D rate increased by 2-3pct, and the impact was even greater than that of raw materials, indicating that the current time period is dark before dawn. Once the performance is released, it may be reborn and usher in rapid growth.
How to view the dependence of key customers. Volkswagen is the company’s core customer. In 2021, Volkswagen Group delivered a total of 8.882 million vehicles to the world, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5%; The delivery volume in China was 3.348 million, down 14.1% year-on-year. The decline in sales volume of key customers has affected the phased performance. However, it should be noted that the proportion of Volkswagen Group has decreased to 69% from 74% in 2020, and other customers have also increased significantly. In addition, more global platforms such as BMW, Ford and Renault will increase in 2022, and the degree of customer dependence will further decline. From the perspective of new orders, European, American, Japanese, new forces of car making and Chinese leading enterprises have been successfully developed, and the diversification of customer structure will be better and better.
How to look at the performance inflection point. In the second quarter, the epidemic situation in Shanghai and Jilin led to the company’s phased shutdown, which was affected by 20-30 days, so the performance in the second quarter will also be suppressed to a certain extent. However, the R & D investment is about 80-85 million yuan in a single quarter and remains relatively stable. Once the revenue reaches the inflection point in a single quarter, the proportion of four fees will decline significantly, and the profit growth will be much greater than the revenue growth.
Investment suggestion: the outbreak of the epidemic has led to the shutdown of many car factories in Shanghai and Changchun. We have lowered our expectations for 2022. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022 and 2023 will be 660 million (original 710 / 1.1 billion) respectively, which corresponds to only about 28 times of PE in 2022. We will give a valuation of 45 times in 2022, target price of 67.5 yuan and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the sales volume of passenger car industry is lower than expected, the price of raw materials continues to deteriorate, and the impact of the epidemic situation.
