\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 779 Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) )
Event overview
In 2021, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 4.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 54.1%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 64.0%. Among them, 21q4 achieved a total operating revenue of 1.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 14.0%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 200 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 13.4%. 22q1 achieved a total operating income of 1.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 14.1%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 360 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 13.5%. Lower than market expectations.
Analysis and judgment:
After 21 years of successful completion, 22q1 was significantly affected by the epidemic, but it still maintained the simultaneous rise of volume and price
In 21 years, the liquor business realized an operating revenue of 4.62 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 53.8%, and the sales volume / ton price were + 40.3% / 9.6% year-on-year respectively. In terms of products, in the past 22 years, the revenue of high-grade / medium-grade products was 4.52/100 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 54.3% / + 34.4%, sales volume of + 40.4% / + 38.9% and ton price of + 9.9% / - 3.2% respectively. The contribution of higher income and higher sales is greater than that of price. The price of high-end liquor is rising. We have judged that the core product Jingtai, eight and collection series revenue growth is higher than that of the top grade baijiu. The company set up high-end liquor sales company to focus on the sales of the collection and above products. After 21 years' collection of the collection products, the collection series burst out and grew vigorously. From the perspective of regions, in the past 21 years, the Company re divided the sales regions, increased the number of key markets from 5 to 8, and strengthened and refined the team execution and talent promotion system. We judged that the power of sales teams in key regions increased, and the revenue growth rate exceeded the overall level, showing outstanding performance.
After the Spring Festival of 22 years, the epidemic broke out in many places in China, and all localities have strengthened control. The consumption scene of the price band of the company's products has been greatly reduced, and the channel shipment has been significantly affected by the epidemic. In terms of products, the revenue of high-grade / middle-grade products was 1.36/40 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 12.2% / + 57.1% respectively. In terms of subregions, China's operating revenue was + 11.6% year-on-year, and the sales volume / ton price were + 9.8% / + 1.6% year-on-year respectively. Although disturbed by the epidemic in the short term, the overall trend of simultaneous increase in volume and price remained, with 42 dealers at the end of the period.
The increase in short-term sales expenses was mainly due to increased brand exposure and circle communication, and the long-term expense rate remained stable
Benefiting from the simultaneous rise in the volume and price of high-end products, the gross profit margin of 21fy is + 0.3pct to 84.5%, of which the gross profit margin of high-end / middle-end products is 85.1% / 60.2% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.3 / - 1.0pct; The gross profit margin of 22q1 increased from -0.1pct to 84.9% year-on-year, mainly due to the shipment of high-grade wine affected by the epidemic, and the performance of medium-grade wine was more prominent (the gross profit margin of high-grade / medium-grade wine was 85.3% / 66.7%, year-on-year -0.03 / + 4.9pct). Continue to promote the construction of high-end brand, increase the investment of advertising expenses and improve the cost efficiency. The sales / management expense rate of 21fy is 26.5% / 7.0%, respectively - 1.5 / - 2.3pct year-on-year. 22q1 sales / management expense ratio was 29.0% / 7.0%, with a year-on-year increase of + 7.3 / - 2.1pct respectively, mainly due to the increase of IP activities (" Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) - ice and snow China year" column, exclusive title "national treasure · exhibition season", etc.) and core consumer communication activities (Urban Tennis League, Lion King fair, product appraisal Association, brand bank, etc.). The final net interest rate of 21fy / 22q1 was 25.9% / 25.6% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.6 / - 8.2pct respectively. The decrease of net interest rate of 22q1 was mainly due to the increase of short-term sales expenses due to the increase of brand exposure and circle communication. We judge that the company has passed the expense peak and the annual expense rate will remain relatively stable.
At the end of 2001, the sales revenue was 5.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 48.3%, which was basically the same as the growth rate of operating revenue; Advances received (contract liabilities + other current liabilities) amounted to 1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 30.8%, which is expected to be caused by the increase of goods preparation and payment in the Spring Festival of 22 years. 22at the end of Q1, the sales revenue was 1.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 2.41%, lower than the growth rate of revenue, mainly due to the increase of advertising and other expenses; Advances received (contract liabilities + other current liabilities) amounted to 850 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15.0%; The fixed asset investment of 320 million yuan is mainly Qionglai project. Although the project is affected by the epidemic, we judge that it will be completed in April of 23 according to the original plan.
Adhere to the three strategies of product upgrading and innovation + high-end brand + marketing breakthrough, which is expected to be the driving force of market growth in the future
The company continued to implement three major strategies. From the perspective of product upgrading and innovation, the collection was upgraded in September 21 (the recommended retail price is 1399 yuan / bottle, positioning high-end), the collection · ice and snow, collection · Sanxingdui cultural and creative products were launched in December, and the well platform upgraded version was launched in April 22 (the recommended retail price of 52 degrees is 808 yuan / bottle, and the recommended retail price of 38 degrees is 768 yuan / bottle) The phased research results of the No. 1 flora research project in cooperation with the Chinese Academy of Sciences show that there are many unique strains of No. 1 flora. From the perspective of high-end brand, establish the collection series of the company's high-end brand image, and increase in-depth communication with high-end circles through cooperation with IP China ice and snow conference and national treasures, organizing urban tennis competitions, tasting meetings, Lion King gathering and other activities. From the perspective of marketing breakthrough, we will promote the establishment of 25 high-end liquor sales companies, focus on offline group purchase channels, and Baijiu BC digital projects. We should pay attention to market sales and consumer participation, and link enterprises, distributors and consumers. We believe that the 500800 yuan sub high-end price band is still in the growth stage. After the upgrading of well platform and collection products, driven by the enhancement of consumer communication and the number of enterprise group purchases, it is expected to provide growth impetus in the future.
Investment advice
Due to the scattered epidemic, wide range of influence and certain pressure on the dynamic sales of products, we adjusted the company's profit forecast. From 2022 to 2023, the company's operating revenue was reduced from 5.82/7.17 billion yuan to 5.33/6.69 billion yuan, and the new revenue forecast for 2024 was 8.09 billion yuan; The net profit attributable to the parent company was reduced from 1.43/1.78 billion yuan to 1.40/1.81 billion yuan, and the profit forecast for 2024 was increased by 2.24 billion yuan; EPS was adjusted from 2.29/2.93/3.66 yuan to 2.87/3.70/4.58 yuan. On April 22, 2022, the closing price was 79.7 yuan, corresponding to 27.78/21.54/17.39 times of PE, which was lowered from "buy" rating to "overweight" rating.
Risk tips
The economic recovery is less than expected; The growth of core products is less than expected; Food safety issues.
