\u3000\u30 Beijing Telesound Electronics Co.Ltd(003004) 13 Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) )
2q began to arrange a variety of films, and the annual advertising revenue is expected to grow against the trend. Affected by the rectification and upgrading of variety shows started at the end of last year, a number of variety shows were postponed in the first quarter of this year. According to Guduo, 1q22 mango TV had a cumulative broadcast volume of 12.4 billion times, a year-on-year decrease of 17%. The company took the initiative to adjust the content and tonality of variety shows. In the second quarter, the variety shows began to be rich. It is expected that "sound never stops" and "ride the wind and waves 3" (s + level), as well as several other variety shows, are expected to be launched on 2q, 3Q films are also abundant, and "quality" and "quantity" have increased significantly year-on-year. Therefore, although the macroeconomic slowdown has pressure on the growth of the overall advertising industry, we expect Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) with its strong innovation and self-control ability, the advertising business revenue will still grow against the trend, and we expect it to grow by 20% in 2022.
The ROI of industrial dramas rebounded, and the growth of mango TV members can be expected. The competition pattern in the online video industry has improved, the proportion of actors' salary limit superimposed on self-made has increased, and the input and output of dramas have been significantly optimized. At present, the growth of members of the first two video platforms is slowing down, and the industry has entered the stage of intensive cultivation and pursuit of benefits. The new number of mango TV series is about 1 / 3 of the head platform. After increasing the investment in the series, the "monsoon theater" has achieved initial results, and the content reserve of the series in the future is rich and diverse. We expect that the company's content capital expenditure will reach 15 billion yuan in about 24-25 years, and the number of episodes is expected to be higher than that of shoulder platform. We predict that the number of Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) members will increase by 29% in 2022.
Build a meta universe platform based on content. The company actively explores virtual image, digital collection, blockchain and other fields, and explores the construction of meta universe platform Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) naturally has the use scene of virtual human, and has outstanding IP operation ability. "Xiaoyang" has participated in hosting programs such as hello Saturday Co.Ltd(002291) . The company has developed its own blockchain "light chain" and launched digital collections in conjunction with broadcast film and television, which is conducive to enriching mango TV realization channels. We are optimistic about the diversified layout of the company in the meta universe field.
Profit forecast: we expect the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22 / 23 / 24 years to be RMB 2.479/30.09/3.683 billion respectively, yoy + 17% / + 21% / + 22%, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: macroeconomic downturn; The content or investment performance is not as expected; Industry regulatory risks; The investment return of film and television business is uncertain and risky
