\u3000\u30 Shaanxi Zhongtian Rocket Technology Co.Ltd(003009) 73 Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) )
Event: the company released the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022q1. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 2.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 55.7%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 280 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 22.0%; The revenue of single Q4 was 860 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 40.4%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 90 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 16.6%. In 2022q1, the revenue was 630 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 8.8%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 40 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 45.3%.
The frozen baking maintained high growth, and the channel was steadily expanded. In 2021, the company’s revenue grew steadily, and the frozen baking business achieved high growth. 1) Products: the company’s revenue of frozen baking / baking raw materials was RMB 1.72 billion / 1.1 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 79.7% / 28.7% respectively. Specifically, it is estimated that the scale of cassava is about 600 million yuan, tarts are about 350 million yuan, frozen cakes and doughnuts are nearly 300 million yuan, pastry is about 200 million yuan and cakes are about 100 million yuan respectively; 2) Channel: the company’s distribution / direct sales channels achieved revenue of 1.84 billion yuan and 960 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 30.4% / + 144.6% respectively. We expect that the revenue of commercial supermarket channels accounts for more than 30% and that of bakery stores accounts for about 50%. The company has achieved remarkable results in channel intensive cultivation. By the end of 2021, the company had more than 1000 sales personnel, more than 2700 cooperative customers and more than 50000 terminal service customers.
Q1 cost pressure remains, and the epidemic affects terminal demand. In 2022q1, the company achieved revenue of 370 million yuan / 260 million yuan for frozen baked goods / baked raw materials respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 11.1% / 5.6% respectively. We expect that the commercial supermarket channel in Q1 will maintain a stable growth, with a simultaneous increase of about 10%, accounting for nearly 40% of the revenue. The slowdown in revenue growth is mainly due to the intensification of the epidemic. It is expected that the company’s revenue will increase by about 20% year-on-year from January to February, and the revenue will decline since March; The decline in performance was mainly due to the rise in the cost of raw materials and the withdrawal of equity incentive expenses. If the impact of equity incentive expenses was excluded, the company realized a total net profit attributable to the parent company of 55.62 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 24.0%. In terms of profit margin, Q1 company’s gross profit margin is 33.1% (- 3.4pct), sales / management expense ratio is 13.0% / 8.9% respectively, year-on-year -0.1pct / + 4.7pct, and net profit margin is 6.4% (- 6.3pct). Excluding the impact of equity incentive and rising costs, it is expected that the profit margin of 2022q1 company can still maintain about 11%.
Capacity expansion continued to advance and accelerated to seize market share. By 2021, the company has a total of 173000 tons of actual capacity and 106000 tons of capacity under construction. Among them, frozen baking products have 94000 tons of actual capacity and 46000 tons of capacity under construction. The capacity utilization rate in 2021 is 88.3% (- 1.4pct); The production and marketing rate is 94.3% (- 2.7 PCT); The cream products have 3800 tons of actual capacity and 60000 tons of under construction capacity. The utilization rate of capacity in 2021 is 96.5% (+12.8pct), and the production and marketing rate is 102.2% (+8.8pct). In the face of the impact of the epidemic, the company actively launched community group purchase channels and contributed a certain incremental effect. Facing the cost pressure, the company alleviates the cost pressure by means of price locking / product structure adjustment. It is expected that with the gradual dissipation of the impact of the epidemic, the company’s performance is expected to improve and is optimistic about long-term growth.
Profit forecast: the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022 / 23 / 24 is expected to be RMB 290 / 4.2 / 610 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.6% / 46.4% / 45.4% respectively, corresponding to pe50 / 34 / 24 times. After adding back the equity incentive fee, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 350 / 460 / 630 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 14% / 31% / 37%; The current market value corresponds to 41 / 31 / 23 times of PE, maintaining the “buy” rating
Risk tip: capacity construction is less than expected; Price fluctuation of raw materials; Industry competition intensifies.
