Event: on January 11, the passenger car Federation released the production and sales data of passenger cars in December.
In December, the retail end of passenger cars increased by 15.9% month on month, with significant improvement. In December, the retail sales volume of passenger cars was 2.105 million, a year-on-year decrease of 7.9% and a month on month increase of 15.9%. The month on month increase was higher than the month on month increase of about 10% in December over the years, and the month on month trend improved significantly. Among them, the retail sales of independent brands were 930000, a year-on-year increase of 4% and a month on month increase of 12%. In December, the independent share reached 46.3%, with a year-on-year increase of 6.9 PCT; The annual share reached 41%, an increase of 5.6pct. Mainstream joint venture brands retail 930000 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 19% and a month on month increase of 19%, with significant improvement. Among them, the American market share reached 9%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.6pct; The Japanese market share reached 22.2%, a year-on-year decrease of 1PCT; Legal system share increased by 0.3pct; The German system is gradually improving. In December, 250000 luxury cars were retailed, an increase of 22% over December 2019, and the demand for high-end replacement continued to be strong.
The core shortage continued to ease, and the passenger car production end increased year-on-year and month on month in December. In December, 2.466 million passenger cars were produced, with a year-on-year increase of 7.2% and a month on month increase of 10.6%, indicating that the degree of core shortage was further alleviated. Among them, the production of independent brands increased by 13% year-on-year and 8% month on month; Luxury brands increased by 20% year-on-year and 18% month on month; Joint venture brands decreased by 1% year-on-year and increased by 11% month on month. In terms of auto enterprises, Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) and Great Wall performed well: GAC motor / GF / geben produced 44000, 103000 and 94000 vehicles respectively in December, with a year-on-year increase of 35%, 26% and 12% respectively, and a month-on-month increase of 25%, 22% and 8% respectively; Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) in December, 163000 vehicles were produced, with a year-on-year increase of 9% and a month on month increase of 31%.
In December, the sales volume of new energy vehicles maintained a high growth, and the retail new energy penetration rate reached 22.6%. In December, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 475000, a year-on-year increase of 128.8% and a month on month increase of 25.4%. Among them, the sales of pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles were 392000 and 83000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 126.3% and 141.6% respectively. The retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China in December was 22.6%, and the penetration rate from January to December was 14.8%, significantly higher than the penetration rate of 5.8% in 2020. In December, the penetration rate of independent new energy was 39%; Luxury brand new energy penetration rate is 32.7%; The penetration rate of mainstream joint venture new energy is only 3.3%. In December, the wholesale sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 505000, with a year-on-year increase of 138.9% and a month on month increase of 17.8%. Among them, the top 10 car enterprises with wholesale sales are Byd Company Limited(002594) 93338, Tesla 70847, SAIC GM Wuling 60372, Great Wall 20926, Chery 20501, Geely 16831, Xiaopeng 16000, SAIC 14868 passenger cars, GAC EA 14500 and ideal 14087.
It is expected that the traditional vehicle and new energy vehicle industries will improve in an all-round way in 2022. In terms of new energy vehicles, the subsidy policy will keep the technical indicators and threshold requirements unchanged in 2022, but the subsidy scale has not locked the original expected upper limit of 2 million vehicles, and the subsidy will run through the whole year. It is expected that the cost reduction capacity will continue to improve due to the scale expansion and technological progress of new energy vehicles; At the same time, with the implementation of subsidies and the rise of raw material prices, the prices of some models will rise, but the consumer demand will not be reduced. The production and sales of new energy vehicles are expected to continue to grow in 2022. In terms of traditional vehicles, with the continuous improvement of chip shortage, the orders reserved in the early stage are expected to speed up delivery; With the launch of new products by auto enterprises, the demand is released, and the traditional passenger cars are expected to be significantly improved in 2022.
Focus on recommending high-quality independent vehicle and parts enterprises. Among vehicle enterprises, high-quality industry leaders are mainly recommended: Byd Company Limited(002594) (E platform 3.0 and DMI models work together), Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) (accelerated expansion of new energy vehicles, upward bottom of fuel vehicles and significant performance flexibility contributed by the joint venture), Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) (fuel, hybrid and pure electricity usher in a strong product cycle), and Xiaopeng automobile (leading in product intelligence and gradually increasing volume); Among the parts companies, Zhejiang Founder Motor Co.Ltd(002196) (expanding new forces + first-line autonomy + overseas high-quality customers), Jiangsu Changshu Automotive Trim Group Co.Ltd(603035) (benefiting from the large volume of new forces customers), Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) (benefiting from the high-end of the lamp industry), Shanghai Kelai Mechatronics Engineering Co.Ltd(603960) (increasing the shipment of CO2 Heat Pump + accelerating the expansion of valve products).
Risk tip: there is a continuous shortage of chips, the progress of new products is less than expected, and the sales of new models are less than expected.
