\u3000\u30 Shaanxi Zhongtian Rocket Technology Co.Ltd(003009) 73 Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) )
Performance review
On April 24, the company released the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022. In the 21st year, the company achieved a revenue of 2.817 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 55.7%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 283 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 22.0%; Among them, 21q4 achieved a revenue of 856 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 40.4%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 86 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 16.6%. 22q1 achieved a revenue of 630 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 8.8%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 40 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 45.3%.
Business analysis
Frozen baking products continued to be in large quantities, and Q1 was obviously under pressure due to the disturbance of the epidemic. In the 21st year, the company's frozen baking / cream / fruit / sauce / other businesses were + 80% / 27% / 29% / 33% / 28% year-on-year respectively; With the release of production capacity and the expansion of emerging channels, the growth of frozen baking business is bright. In terms of sub channels, distribution / direct sales / retail are + 30% / 145% / 140% year-on-year respectively. The large volume of Sam's club has driven the rapid improvement of direct sales channels. In the 21st year, the sales volume of frozen baking / cream / fruit / sauce was + 69% / 25% / 29% / 25% year on year respectively, and the average price was + 7% / 1% / 0% / 7% year on year respectively. The epidemic situation of 22q1 was repeated, which was more serious in South and East China. The company's advantageous areas (East China + South China accounted for 69%) were under obvious pressure, which reduced Q1 performance.
Gross profit margin under cost pressure. The gross profit margin of the company in 21 years / 21q4 / 22q1 was 34.5% / 34.9% / 33.1% respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.2/3.4/3.4pct respectively; It is mainly due to the continuous rise in the price of oil and other bulk raw materials and the increase in labor costs. In the 21st year, the company's sales / management / finance rate was - 1.1 / + 1.4 / - 0.1pct, 21q4 was - 3.1 / + 3.7 / - 0.2pct, and 22q1 was - 0.1 / + 4.7 / - 0.2pct. We believe that the gradual decline of the sales expense rate is mainly the embodiment of the scale effect, and the increase of the management expense rate is mainly the provision of equity incentive expenses. Transmitted to the net interest rate, 21 years / 21q4 / 22q1 were 10.0% / 10.0% / 6.4% respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.8/2.0/6.3pct respectively. To restore the incentive fee, we expect the net interest rate of 21 years / 22q2 to be 10.9% / 8.7% respectively.
There is still epidemic situation and cost pressure in the short term, but the annual freezing and baking capacity released to ensure the growth momentum. In the short term, there is still the pressure of epidemic disturbance, raw materials are still high, Q2 revenue and annual profit margin are under certain pressure, and there will be great elasticity in 23 years if the subsequent cost side pressure decreases. In 22 years, under the rhythm of capacity release, it is still expected to achieve high growth at the business end. It is expected that the frozen baking capacity can increase by about 50%.
Investment advice
Due to the epidemic situation and cost pressure, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-23 years will be reduced by 13% / 7% /, and the EPS in 22-24 years is expected to be 1.95/2.94/3.59 yuan, corresponding to 43 / 29 / 24 times of PE, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The growth of new products did not meet expectations, the rising pressure of raw material costs, food safety problems and intensified industry competition.
