Key investment points
Overall overview of the industry: Wholesale in December was + 10.0% month on month, which was generally in line with our expectations. Passenger Federation caliber: in the narrow sense, the output of passenger cars reached 2.466 million (year-on-year + 7.2%, month on month + 10.6%), and the wholesale sales reached 2.366 million (year-on-year + 2.3%, month on month + 10.0%). In 2021, a total of 20.951 million vehicles were produced, a year-on-year increase of + 7.7%; The cumulative wholesale sales volume was 21.098 million, a year-on-year increase of + 6.7%. The export of passenger cars was 170000, with a year-on-year increase of + 63% and a month on month balance. The export of new energy vehicles was 25500, with a month on month increase of – 27.14%. In December, the output of new energy passenger vehicles reached 486000 (YoY + 140.2%, mom + 11.6%), and the wholesale sales reached 505000 (YoY + 138.9%, mom + 17.8%). The annual output of new energy vehicles was 3.308 million, a year-on-year increase of + 190.0%, and the wholesale output was 3.312 million, a year-on-year increase of + 181.0%. Looking forward to January 2022: we expect that the overall production batch chain ratio of the passenger car industry is about – 20% / – 13% respectively, and the corresponding year-on-year ratio is + 6.5% / + 1.4% respectively; Export chain ratio is about – 20%, corresponding to + 65% year-on-year; The chain ratio of traffic compulsory insurance was – 10%, corresponding to – 13% year-on-year; The wholesale of new energy is expected to be about 400000, with a month on month ratio of – 20%, corresponding to a year-on-year ratio of + 135%.
In December, the wholesale penetration rate of new energy vehicles increased slightly, and the new energy market as a whole continued to be hot. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in December was 21.34%, with a month on month ratio of + 1.39 PCT; The annual wholesale penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 15.7%, with a year-on-year increase of + 9.7pct. In terms of breakdown, the wholesale sales volume of BEV pure electric vehicles in December was 423000, with a month on month ratio of + 137.9% / + 23.1% respectively, and the industry penetration rate was 17.9%, with a month on month ratio of + 2.6pct. The wholesale sales volume of BEV models in the whole year was 2.736 million, a year-on-year increase of + 182.9%. The annual wholesale penetration rate was 13.0%; In December, the wholesale sales volume of PHEV models was 82000, with a month on month ratio of + 143.9% / – 3.6%, industry penetration rate of 3.5%, and a month on month ratio of + 0.2pct. The annual wholesale sales volume of PHEV models was 577000, with a year-on-year increase of + 172.2%, and the annual wholesale penetration rate was 2.7%.
Production and marketing at the level of automobile enterprises: the wholesale performance of mainstream automobile enterprises is better than that of joint ventures. In December, the wholesale of mainstream automobile enterprises improved month on month: 1) among independent brands, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) / Geely Automobile had the best performance in December, with a month on month increase of + 32.54% / + 16.85% respectively, and Changan independent / GAC motor / GAC e’an had a negative month on month increase; 2) Among the new forces auto enterprises, Tesla exported less in December, only 245 vehicles. The sales volume in the Chinese market was + 34.03% month on month. The wholesale volume of Xiaopeng / ideal / Weilai in December exceeded 10000, of which Weilai decreased by 3.58% month on month, and Xiaopeng / ideal went up month on month; 3) Among the joint venture brands, except Dongfeng Nissan’s wholesale decreased month on month in December, the wholesale of other mainstream joint venture brands improved month on month, and the terminal demand was better. Changan Ford / FAW Volkswagen performed better month on month, with + 27.41% / + 27.01% month on month respectively. In the whole year, the wholesale performance of independent brands was better than that of joint venture brands: 1) the wholesale of mainstream independent brands achieved positive growth year-on-year in 2021, which benefited from the continuous upward industry development trend of new energy vehicle penetration. GAC EA / Byd Company Limited(002594) automobile had the best performance year-on-year + 101.80% / + 73.34%; 2) Among the new power brands, Tesla + weixiaoli’s wholesale sales have more than doubled; 3) The wholesale of most mainstream joint venture brands declined year-on-year in 2021, among which Changan Ford performed best, achieving a year-on-year + 20.29%, and SAIC Volkswagen + FAW Volkswagen experienced the largest year-on-year decline, mainly due to the great impact of chip shortage.
Investment suggestion: still optimistic about investment opportunities in the automobile sector. Triple cycle resonance in 2022, the golden age of autonomy: 1) chip mitigation brings the demand for replenishment in the passenger car industry. It is expected to enter the cycle of continuous year-on-year improvement of production and sales data in 2022. 2) Intelligent + electric + hybrid, a new round of new cars of independent brands have been listed one after another, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles continues to rise, driving the market share of independent brands to achieve higher quality. 3) All independent brands actively promote overseas strategies, and exports will continue to enter the high growth channel. The whole vehicle segment recommends [ Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) + ideal car + Xiaopeng Car + Byd Company Limited(002594) + Geely car + Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) + Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) + Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) ], and pays attention to [Weilai Car + Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co.Ltd(601127) + Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp.Ltd(600418) ]. Parts and components recommend [ Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) + Foryou Corporation(002906) + Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) + Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) + Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) + China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) + Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) + Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) ], and pay attention to [ Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) + Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) + Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) + Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) ].
Risk tip: the recovery of downstream demand is lower than expected, and the epidemic control is lower than expected.
