This week’s view
This week Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) announced the completion of the non-public offering. The non-public offering had a total of 242 million shares, a lock price of 302 million yuan and a raise of 730 million yuan. The major shareholders subscribed in full and locked for 3 years for digital transformation, R & D center expansion and replenishment. After the issuance, the shareholding of actual controllers increased from 25.8% to 38.09%, and that of major shareholders increased from 10.35% to 25.20%. At the current time point, we recommend Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) , Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) , Bros Eastern Co.Ltd(601339) :
(1) with the target of expanding store space, Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) : 1) the main brand has strengthened store opening in the central region by creating sports suits and broadening application scenarios, maintaining a growth rate of more than 15% higher than that of the industry; 2) Hazys: on the basis of high efficiency, the brand still has extension shop space; In addition, the brand still has the logic of expanding categories such as shoes, bags and golf series, which is expected to maintain an increase of more than 25% in the future; 3) BAONIAO is expected to maintain a growth rate of more than 10%, and usher in an improvement in net interest rate with the commissioning of Hefei factory; 4) Small brands zhonglefeiye and kemiche are expected to maintain an increase of more than 35% and gradually contribute to profits.
(2) for the target of high view track, Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) : 1) there are sufficient export orders and it is expected to grow steadily in the future; 2) Domestic business benefited from the policy of superposition and double reduction of epidemic situation, driving the hot demand for camping. In the medium and long term, the proportion of domestic sales revenue is expected to exceed half in the future, and the superimposed net interest rate will be improved to 15% +.
(3) the performance is expected to exceed the expected varieties, Bros Eastern Co.Ltd(601339) : according to our analysis, the capacity utilization rate of Blum Vietnam plant has recovered to 90% in November. Considering the company’s ability to raise the price under the rise of cotton price, the annual performance may exceed the expectation. Blum’s Chinese factories are mainly located in Yuyao and Zhenhai, Ningbo, Huai’an, Jiangsu, Zoucheng, Shandong, Hebei and other places (a total of 700000 ingots), and the orders of Ningbo factories can be transferred to other areas. According to our analysis, the Beilun epidemic has little impact on Bros Eastern Co.Ltd(601339) .
Market review: outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.48pct
This week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.65%, the gem index fell 6.80%, and the SW textile and garment sector rose 0.83%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.48pct and the gem index by 7.63pct. Among them, SW textile manufacturing increased by 2.64%, and SW clothing and home textile decreased by 0.02%. At present, the PE of SW textile and garment industry is 19.81. This week, home textiles performed best, with an increase of 5.22%; Outdoor and sports performance was the worst, with a decrease of 3.76%.
Market data tracking: China’s cotton price index rose 1.02%
As of January 7, China’s cotton 328 index was 22333 yuan / ton, up 1.02% this week; China’s imported cotton price index (1% tariff) was 20435 yuan / ton, up 0.45% this week. As of January 6, the closing price of cotlooka index (1% tariff) was 20071 yuan / ton, up 2.70% this week. On the whole, the cotton price difference between inside and outside this week was 1898 yuan / ton, an increase of 163 yuan / ton compared with last weekend. As of December 16, the composite index of the Eastern market of Australian Wool Exchange was 1358 Australian cents / kg, equivalent to 62159 yuan / ton (a $1 = 4.5773 yuan), down 0.15% from 1360 Australian cents / kg on December 9.
Industry news
Nike sued lululemon for patent infringement and sought triple compensation; Men’s sports brand OMG received tens of millions of financing; Shenzhou International stopped production due to the epidemic, and Nike, Adie and other brands may fall into the shortage crisis again.
Risk tips
Second outbreak of the epidemic; Fluctuation risk of raw materials; Systemic risk.
