\u3000\u30 Shaanxi Zhongtian Rocket Technology Co.Ltd(003009) 73 Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) )
Event:
The company released the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022. The annual revenue of 2021 was 2.817 billion yuan, an increase of 55.66% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 283 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.98%. In 2022, Q1 achieved a revenue of 630 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.83%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 40 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 45.29%.
Comments:
The annual revenue maintained high growth, and the profit was under pressure due to the decline of gross profit
Revenue side: in 2021, the company's frozen baked goods / cream / fruit products / sauces increased by 79.7% / 26.95% / 29.27% / 33.17% respectively compared with the same period last year. Frozen baked products still maintained rapid growth under the background of high prosperity of the industry. Cost side: the rise in the price of raw materials has a great impact on the gross profit margin. Except for fruit products, the gross profit margin of other categories has declined by more than 4%, and this trend continues in the first quarter of 22 years. Expense side: the operating cost rose sharply, and the Q1 management expense in 2021 and 22 increased by 100.56%/133.81% respectively, mainly due to the increase of equity incentive and excess performance incentive expenses.
Capacity layout expansion, diversified channels and coordinated development
The market demand for frozen baking is increasing day by day, and the supply of production capacity restricts the business expansion. Therefore, the company actively carries out the production capacity expansion plan. Part of the production capacity of Henan plant has been released, and the second plant in Zhejiang has also been started. It is expected that it will be put into operation successively by the second half of 2022. In addition, the production capacity of Foshan Sanshui will be supplemented. It is expected that at least 80000 tons of production capacity will be added for frozen baking in 2022. In terms of channels, the revenue of distribution / direct sales / retail end increased by 30.35% / 144.6% / 140.33% respectively in 2021. The company continued to deepen the layout of diversified sales channels such as bakeries, beverage stores and convenience stores, so as to realize the two wheel drive of products and channels.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
The market potential of China's chain baking and central kitchen is huge, and the increased penetration of frozen baking products will bring more market space. We raised the revenue forecast for 20222023 to 3.616/4.586 billion yuan (the original value was 3.071/3.918 billion yuan), a year-on-year increase of 28.36% / 26.82%; Taking into account the continuous increase in the volatility of raw materials and the increase in equity incentives and other expenses, we adjusted the net profit from 2022 to 2023 to 350 / 505 million yuan (the original value was 437 / 597 million yuan), gave the forecast of revenue and net profit in 2024 to 5.761 billion yuan and 693 million yuan respectively, the corresponding EPS to 2.06/2.98/4.09 yuan respectively, the corresponding PE to the current stock price to 41 / 28 / 21 times respectively, gave the valuation of 1.5xpeg in 2022, the corresponding target price to 107.35 yuan, and maintained the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Food safety risks; Price fluctuation risk of raw materials; New product promotion is less than expected risk, etc
