Events
According to the industry statistics of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, the 25 main engine manufacturing enterprises included in the statistics from January to December 2021 sold a total of 343000 excavators. Among them, the sales volume in the Chinese market is 274000 and the export is 68000.
Key investment points
The sales volume of excavator will increase by 5% in 2021; It is estimated that the sales volume of excavators will decrease by 10% in 2022, including exports + 50% and China - 25%. The sales volume of excavators will be 24000 in December 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 24%, which is narrower than that in November. Among them, China has 15000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 44%; 8615 sets were exported, with a year-on-year increase of 105%
In 2021, the annual sales volume of excavators was 343000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 5%; Among them, 274000 units were sold in China, a year-on-year decrease of 6%; Export sales of 68000 units, a year-on-year increase of 97%.
It is estimated that the sales volume of excavators will be 309000 units in 2022, a year-on-year decrease of 10%. Among them, China sold 206000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 25%, and exported 103000 units, a year-on-year increase of 50%.
In 2021, the sales volume of small excavation decreased by 2.7 PCT, the proportion of medium excavation increased by 3.3 PCT, and the proportion of large excavation decreased by 0.6 PCT. In December 2021, the sales volume of small excavation in China market was 9498 units, a year-on-year decrease of 42%, the sales volume accounted for 62%, and a year-on-year increase of 1.8 PCT; The sales volume of China mining was 3820 units, with a year-on-year decrease of 49%, accounting for 25%, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.5pct; The sales volume of 2105 units was greatly excavated, with a year-on-year decrease of 40%, accounting for 14%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7pct. In 2021, the sales volume of small excavation in the Chinese market was 163000 units, with a year-on-year increase of - 8%, accounting for 59%, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.7pct; The sales volume of medium excavation was 78000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 1%, accounting for 28%, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3pct; The sales volume of large-scale excavation was 34000 units, with a year-on-year increase of - 13%, accounting for 12%, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.6 PCT.
Special bonds were issued in advance, major projects were started in all localities, and the expected margin of demand was improved under the expectation of steady growth. Recently, the Ministry of finance has issued to all localities in advance the new special debt limit of 1.46 trillion yuan in 2022. With the local government bonds issued before the end of 2021, the overall scale should exceed 2 trillion yuan, It provides a strong financial guarantee for the stable operation of the economy in the first quarter of 2022. It is expected that with the weakening of the base effect, the commencement of major projects will boost procurement confidence, and the decline of construction machinery represented by excavators will narrow in the second quarter.
In December, the export of excavators hit a new high in a single month. If the export increases by 50% next year, it can hedge China's 10% - 22% decline. In December, 8615 excavators were exported, with a year-on-year increase of 105%. The export sales volume of excavators has reached 52% CAGR in the past five years, and the annual export will reach 68000 units in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of at least 97%, showing an accelerating trend. If a relatively pessimistic assumption is adopted for the growth rate of excavator sales in 2022 (assuming a growth rate of - 10% ~ 0% in 2022), if the export of excavator can maintain a growth of 50%, the decline of 10% - 25% of China's excavator sales can be hedged.
Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) and other companies are expected to move from Chinese leader to global leader by virtue of internationalization, digitization and electrification. Construction machinery is China's current advantageous industry. Chinese companies can rely on economies of scale, industrial chain advantages and operation efficiency advantages to achieve a global leading position. After completing China's import substitution, industry leaders such as Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) will gain a considerable market share in the world by virtue of internationalization, digitization and electrification, and move from Chinese leader to global leader.
Investment advice
Construction machinery continues to focus on the leader of strong alpha attribute. Recommended Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) , Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) , Xcmg Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(000425) , Zhejiang Dingli Machinery Co.Ltd(603338) , Hangcha Group Co.Ltd(603298) ; Continue to be optimistic about Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) , Shaanxi Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(600984) , Anhui Heli Co.Ltd(600761) , Zhejiang Huatie Emergency Equipment Science & Technology Co.Ltd(603300) .
Risk tips
Infrastructure and real estate investment are less than expected; The export growth rate of excavator was lower than expected.
