\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 61 Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) )
Performance summary: in 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 11.13 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.1%, a year-on-year decrease of 255.7% in the net profit attributable to the parent company of - 400 million yuan, and a year-on-year decrease of 338.8%; In the first quarter of the year, the revenue was 2.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.9%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was - 180 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 161.6%.
Comments: during the reporting period, the business segments of the company developed steadily and the revenue increased: 1) in 21 years, the company sold 370 million commercial chickens, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%, and the revenue of commercial chickens was 9.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.7%; 2) In the live pig sector, 413000 commercial pigs were sold during the reporting period, a year-on-year increase of 123.9%, the average sales price was 17.89 yuan / kg, a year-on-year decrease of 44.5%, and the sales revenue was 810 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.4%; 3) In the field of slaughtering and processing, the company sold 22000 tons of frozen chicken and frozen products, a year-on-year increase of 0.74%, and 1.387 million commercial geese, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%. The loss at the profit side was mainly due to the continuous decline of pig prices, which caused serious losses in this sector. The corresponding operating profits of chicken, pig and goose during the overall reporting period were 250 million yuan, - 640 million yuan and 1.11 million yuan, with a total asset impairment loss of 590 million yuan recognized. In the first quarter of 2012, pig breeding continued to be under pressure. The company accrued a total of 190 million yuan of credit and asset impairment losses. The total reversal and write off in the current period was 90 million yuan, and the ending balance was 260 million yuan.
The market share of yellow feather chicken breeding business continues to increase, and the pig breeding sector is arranged at the same time. According to the data of China Animal Husbandry Association, at the end of 2021, there were 40.472 million sets of yellow feather chicken parents' stock, a year-on-year decrease of 6%. At present, the stock has been at a relatively low level for nearly four years, which has a certain supporting effect on the price. Yellow feather chicken breeding was still in general loss in 21 years, and the industry's capacity reduction has achieved initial results since the fourth quarter of 21 years. On the other hand, in July 2020, relevant departments said that they would restrict the trading and slaughter of live birds Encourage qualified places to promote the centralized slaughter of live birds, and gradually cancel the live bird trading market. Nearly 80% of the traditional sales of yellow feather chickens have accelerated the withdrawal of retail investors from the market through the live bird market and superimposed factors such as high feed cost. The scale field has expanded steadily and the market share has increased continuously. The company has achieved remarkable results in controlling costs from multiple angles: 1) keeping a close eye on the price changes of bulk commodities and reducing prices by actively participating in the auction of government grain reserves; 2) Build an integrated management system of differentiated feed formula for commercial chickens of different varieties and growth stages; 3) With the help of colleges and universities, scientific research institutes and their own provenance advantages, the cost can be reduced by cultivating more efficient varieties. In terms of pigs, the company has promoted the medium and long-term development plan and adjusted the construction progress. The pig raising projects of Menghe and Wujin remote observation buildings in Changzhou have been completed and put into operation, and 413000 pigs have been sold in the whole year in 21 years. However, the pig price is depressed and there is still room for the company's cost control. In the future, the company will strive to reduce the full cost. If there is a turning point in the cycle, the company will make full use of its capacity layout and seize the cycle opportunity to improve its performance.
Under the background of steady expansion of production capacity of the company's yellow feather chicken business and gradual closure of live poultry trading, the company actively develops the ice fresh business. The regional expansion strategy of the company's chicken industry was smoothly promoted, and the development of southwest, South and central China was strengthened to continuously release production capacity. Lihua has a complete industrial chain integrating breeding chickens of Zeng grandparents, grandparents and parents, feed production, breeding, slaughtering and processing of commercial yellow feather broilers. 370 million yellow feather chickens were sold in 2021, accounting for 9.2% of the 4.04 billion in China, further increasing from 7.3% in 20 years. On the other hand, the company complies with the improvement of consumers' attention to food safety, actively develops the ice fresh business, improves the adaptability of the company and opens up the future development situation. Compared with the live poultry business, the gross profit margin of chilled chicken is higher. Now the company has set up a subsidiary of chilled chicken slaughtering and processing offline and opened store models in big cities such as Jiangsu and Shanghai; Online cooperation with e-commerce platforms such as Shangchao and HEMA Xiansheng. In the future, the company's performance is expected to grow with the dual promotion of production capacity and new ice fresh business.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.87 yuan, 2.57 yuan and 3.46 yuan respectively, and the corresponding dynamic PE will be 17 / 12 / 9 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: sudden epidemic situation at the breeding end; The sales situation is less than expected; The production capacity of pigs is less than expected.
