\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 888 China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) )
The company released the annual report for 21 years and the first quarterly report for 22 years. In 21 years, the company achieved a revenue of 67.676 billion yuan / yoy + 28.67%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 9.654 billion yuan / yoy + 57.23%; 22q1 achieved a revenue of 16.782 billion yuan / yoy-7.45%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.563 billion yuan / yoy-9.99%. The operation in the first quarter was temporarily under pressure due to the impact of the epidemic.
Key points supporting rating
The epidemic caused Q1 performance to decline year-on-year, and the profit improvement plan was passively disrupted. In the 21st year, the revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company reached 67.676 billion yuan and 9.654 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 28.67% and + 57.23%. 22q1 achieved revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company of 16.782 billion yuan and 2.563 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 7.45% and – 9.99%. According to the previous operating data in January and February, the company’s revenue and net profit in March were – 49% and – 81% year-on-year, which were the main reasons affecting Q1 performance. In terms of gross profit margin, it decreased by 6.96pct to 33.68% year-on-year in 21 years; 22q1 decreased by 5.11pct to 34% year-on-year, while 21q4 improved by 7.56pct month on month. It can be seen that the implementation of the company’s original profit improvement plan was considerable, and then the epidemic disrupted the rhythm and offset some of the repair achieved. Considering that the current epidemic situation is still complex and Sanya duty-free city closed its stores from April 2 to 11, it is expected that the offline revenue in the second quarter will still be under pressure, or the short-term gross profit margin may continue to fluctuate to make up for sales.
Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) channel mutual assistance and symbiosis, improve member management and platform integration. The company’s tax-free channel income in 21 years was 42.936 billion yuan, and the tax channel income was 24.006 billion yuan. The tax accounted for 35.86% of commodity sales. Due to the prominent importance of online business in the post epidemic era, the proportion is expected to maintain or increase again in 22 years. In addition, the company continues to deeply tap the value of members, plans to have 26 million members in 22 years, further realize traffic aggregation and accelerate the integration of online platforms. After the integration, it is expected to optimize the online experience and improve the tax-free business model of Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) omni-channel development.
New stores help to increase the market share, and the consumption policy is partial to actively promote the repair. Q1 Hainan’s social zero consumption was + 4.8% (National + 3.3%) year-on-year and – 17.8% (National – 3.5%) year-on-year in March. Therefore, Hainan has great flexibility in consumption operation. Combined with the State Council’s proposal on April 13 to stabilize current consumption and release consumption potential through comprehensive measures, the strength of market rebound in the later stage is worthy of attention. Although the tax-free competition on outlying islands is higher, the differentiated positioning new harbor project is expected to consolidate the company’s scale advantage and obtain the main part of consumption recovery after its opening.
Valuation
The short-term epidemic situation is still uncertain, but the company has the ability of elastic reversal, supplemented by online business supplement, policy support and superposition of new growth points expected to be created by new stores. After the impact of the epidemic is weakened, the medium and long-term operation of the company is still expected to be optimistic. We predict that the company’s EPS in 22-24 years will be 5.79/7.89/10.73 yuan, with corresponding P / E ratios of 30.5/22.4/16.5 times respectively, maintaining the buy rating.
Main risks of rating
The opening of the country has diverted sales to outlying islands, intensified competition in the tax-free market, and the implementation of the policy is less than expected.
