Update of Zhou’s view: continuing the high growth momentum in November 2021, Xiaopeng and ideal monthly sales reached a record high. In December 2021, Xiaopeng delivered 16000 vehicles, a month on month increase of + 2%, which broke the record of the highest monthly sales volume of new power brands. From January to December, Xiaopeng delivered 98155 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 263%; 14087 ideal cars were delivered in December, a month on month increase of + 4%. The cumulative delivery from January to December reached 90491, a year-on-year increase of + 177%; Weilai delivered 10489 units in December, a month on month increase of – 4%. From January to December, Weilai delivered 91429 units, a year-on-year increase of + 109%; Nezha delivered 10127 units in December, with a year-on-year increase of + 236%, and the monthly sales volume broke 10000 again. From January to December, Nezha delivered 69674 units, with a year-on-year increase of + 362%.
In December 2021, Byd Company Limited(002594) the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 92823, with a chain comparison of + 3.0%, and the new energy penetration rate reached 94.7%; The annual cumulative sales volume was 594000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 231.6%, and the cumulative penetration rate of new energy reached 81.3%, an increase of 38.3pcts compared with the same period of the previous year. In the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles from Byd Company Limited(002594) December, there were 48317 EV Models, with a year-on-year increase of + 148.0% and a month on month increase of + 4.7%; 44506 plug-in hybrid models, with a year-on-year increase of + 448.6% and a month on month increase of + 1.2%. In the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles from January to December, there were 320810 EV Models, a year-on-year increase of + 144.9%; 272935 plug-in hybrid models, a year-on-year increase of + 467.6%. The monthly sales volume of dolphin exceeded 10000. In December 2021, it sold 10016 vehicles, with a chain comparison of + 13.7%, becoming another best-selling model of Byd Company Limited(002594) . Based on the gradual recovery of the national epidemic and the continuous growth of the order demand for Byd Company Limited(002594) new energy vehicles, we expect that Byd Company Limited(002594) will continue to maintain the rapid growth of vehicle sales in 2022, leading the independent brand new energy vehicles to create a new era.
In December 2021, Great Wall sold 162369 new cars, a month on month increase of + 32.5% and a year-on-year increase of + 8.2%; In the whole year, 1280993 new cars were sold, with a year-on-year increase of + 15.2%, of which 142793 were sold overseas, with a year-on-year increase of + 103.7%, accounting for 11.1%. In December Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , 22354 new energy vehicles were sold, and 136953 vehicles were sold from January to December, accounting for 10.7%. Euler brand sold 20926 vehicles in December, with a month on month increase of + 30%, a record high. The annual cumulative sales volume was 135028 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 140%. In December 2021, 11958 tanks were delivered, with a chain ratio of + 18.3%, and 84588 tanks were delivered throughout the year. In December, the Great Wall cannon sold 15117 vehicles worldwide, with a month on month increase of + 18%, with an annual sales of 127940 vehicles, and continued to be the champion of pickup sales. We believe that with the launch of many new models such as ballet cat, punk cat and lightning cat, the sales of Euler brand is expected to continue to increase significantly in 2022; In addition, the tank brand will further increase its market share in China’s SUV market in 2022 by virtue of its excellent product strength and constantly enriching product matrix, leading China’s independent hardliners.
Industry rating and investment strategy: maintain the “recommended” rating of the automotive industry. Optimistic about the continued growth of the automobile market. We believe that this round of chip shortage will accelerate the reconstruction of the new pattern of the automobile market, continue to be optimistic about the accelerated rise of independent brands, and continue to be optimistic about new energy / new forces to seize the market share of traditional automobiles.
Three main lines are recommended:
1. Complete vehicle: revaluation of complete vehicle valuation brought by Tesla wave & brought by new vehicle cycle α Opportunities, first Byd Company Limited(002594) , Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , recommend Geely Automobile, Yutong Bus Co.Ltd(600066) , Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) .
2. Tesla industrial chain: new energy vehicles are in large quantities, and the negotiated prices of core supply rise together. First Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) , recommend Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) , Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) , Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) , Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) , and pay attention to Huada Automotive Technology Corp.Ltd(603358) , Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co.Ltd(002824) .
3. Intelligent driving & Automotive Electronics: the change of business model and the improvement of automotive electronics brought by intelligence. Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Foryou Corporation(002906) , Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Thunder Software Technology Co.Ltd(300496) , Xiamen Faratronic Co.Ltd(600563) , Wuhan Lincontrol Automotive Electronics Co.Ltd(688667) are recommended.
Market review: 1) this week, A-Shares of Shanghai Stock Exchange, A-Shares of Shenzhen Stock Exchange and CSI 300 rose and fell by – 1.17%, – 2.65% and – 1.22% respectively. The rise and fall of automobile plate was – 4.01%, ranking the 24th among 30 industries and the downstream range. 2) Among the sub sectors, the sales and service performed best: from the perspective of molecular sectors, the sales and service of passenger cars, commercial vehicles, parts and components, automobiles, motorcycles and others increased or decreased by – 5.81%, – 0.29%, – 2.99%, – 0.04% and – 1.64% respectively. 3) The top five stocks with rising and falling ranges: from the perspective of individual stocks, the top five companies in the industry this week are Wuxi Best Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(300580) , Yangzhou Yaxingmotor Coach Co.Ltd(600213) , Nanjing Aolian Ae&Ea Co.Ltd(300585) , fine calcination technology and Xuelong Group Co.Ltd(603949) , with an increase of 26.81% / 20.02% / 17.18% / 14.09% / 11.50% respectively, and the top five companies with a decrease of Yunnan Xiyi Industrial Co.Ltd(002265) , Hainan Drinda Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(002865) , Nanjing Chervon Auto Precision Technology Co.Ltd(603982) , Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , Changchun Zhiyuan New Energy Equipment Co.Ltd(300985) , with a decrease of – 21.25% / – 20.18% / – 16.83% / – 16.48% / – 16.20% respectively.
Industry highlights: 1) sales of new energy vehicles in December: Byd Company Limited(002594) leading the high growth of sales of independent new energy vehicles; 2) In December Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , the monthly sales of multiple brands increased simultaneously; 3) Revision of national standard for charging connection device of electric vehicle; 4) In 2021, the global sales volume of the top five car enterprises in South Korea was 7.43 million, an increase of only 2%; 5) Japan’s car sales fell 3.3% year-on-year in 2021, a ten-year low.
Key company developments: 1) Byd Company Limited(002594) new Han EV / DM-I will be unveiled or sold for 220000 yuan at 2022 Beijing auto show, and Byd Company Limited(002594) Han DM-I will be unveiled in the 352nd batch of new cars; 2) Krypton will expand cooperation with Mobileye, or launch L4 self driving new car in China in 2024; 3) SAIC GM’s sales volume exceeded 1.33 million in 2021, and more new energy models will be launched this year; 4) Major changes have taken place in the leadership of BAIC group, and Liu Yu and Gong yueqiong have been promoted to deputy general managers.
Risk tip: if the overseas epidemic continues to deteriorate, it will affect China’s automobile export volume; Recommend the risk that the company’s performance is less than expected; Risk that demand growth is less than expected; Risk of continuous rise in raw material prices and freight; There is a risk that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is lower than expected.
