\u3000\u30 Beijing Telesound Electronics Co.Ltd(003004) 13 Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) )
Performance review
On April 24, 2022, the company issued the annual performance announcement of 21 years and the announcement of the first quarter of 22 years. The revenue of 21 years was 15.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 9.6%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 6.7%; The revenue of 22q1 was 3.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 22.1%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 510 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 34.4%.
Business analysis
The supervision and epidemic situation put pressure on the short-term performance, and the high gross profit margin of the operator's business led to the increase of the comprehensive gross profit margin. The performance pressure in 21 years is mainly due to the delay of some programs due to 4q21 content supervision; 1q22 performance pressure is mainly due to the repeated impact of the epidemic on content production, and 1q21 has a large base. 1) Advertising: revenue of 5.45 billion / yoy + 31.8% in 21 years, mainly due to high-quality self-made content to attract investment and improve soft broadcasting; 2) Members: the 21-year revenue was 3.69 billion / yoy + 13.3%, and the effective members at the end of the year were 50.4 million / yoy + 39.5%. The ARPU value decreased, mainly due to member promotion activities. At present, the long video is in the price increase cycle. The price of mango TV members has increased by 20-30% since January 2, 22. Pay attention to the increase of ARPU value and drive revenue growth. 3) Operators: the revenue of 21 years was 2.12 billion / yoy + 27.2%, the gross profit margin increased by 12.1pct to 80.2%, and the comprehensive gross profit margin increased by 1.4pct to 34.6%.
The production capacity of high-quality content is excellent. It is expected that 2q22 programs will be launched one after another to promote performance repair. The 22-year film list is rich in content, with more than 20 variety shows, and "sound is alive" has been launched in Q2. The following comprehensive N-generation and other variety shows such as "riding the wind and waves 3", "daughters' love 5", "secret room escape 4" will be launched one after another; There are about 60 film and television dramas, including key contents such as "youth school 2" and "relying on the fence to rise".
Layout content e-commerce + live entertainment new track, and cultivate new growth poles. 1) Content e-commerce: the revenue of 21 years was 2.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 2.5%. Xiaomang app is positioned as a trendy domestic product, with a peak dau of 1.26 million throughout the year, and the user portrait is consistent with mango TV. Subsequent mango TV and mango artists are expected to guide it and promote Xiaomang's rapid rise. 2) It is expected that the future of entertainment will be based on the real income of mango, and the real income of entertainment will be optimized by CIM.
Investment advice
Considering the strong self-control ability of the company's high-quality content, the high-quality content will be launched successively from 2q22. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company to be RMB 2.588 billion, RMB 3.080 billion and RMB 3.57 billion (newly introduced) in 202224, with EPS of RMB 1.38/1.64/1.90 and PE of 20.5/17.2/14.8x, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Content supervision risk; The epidemic repeatedly affects the promotion risk of offline business and content production; Long video market competition intensifies risks; Risk that the business progress of content e-commerce is less than expected
