Core view
Performance forecasts have been released one after another, and the outstanding performance of phosphorus chemical industry has attracted market attention. As of January 11, 2022, a total of 32 chemical enterprises have issued performance forecasts for 2021, of which 3 belong to the phosphorus chemical sector. According to the upper limit of performance forecast, the three enterprises of phosphorus chemical industry rank top. Among them, Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) is expected to have a net profit of 3.5-3.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1186.6% ~ 1260.1%, ranking third among the chemical enterprises that have published the performance forecast; Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) it is estimated that the net profit will reach 4.2-4.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 573.1% ~ 605.2%, ranking fourth among the chemical enterprises that have announced the performance forecast; Kunming Chuan Jin Nuo Chemical Co.Ltd(300505) it is expected that the net profit will reach 150-170 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 252.0% ~ 300.2%, ranking ninth among the chemical enterprises that have published the performance forecast.
Combined with the results of the first three quarters and the industry situation in the fourth quarter, the 2021 annual report of the phosphorus chemical industry sector is expected to perform well. From the performance of the previous three quarters, among Shenwan chemical industry, the performance growth of phosphorus chemical industry is more prominent. Among them, Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) net profit attributable to the parent increased by 58997.1%, ranking first in all a shares. Enterprises such as Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) , Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) , Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co.Ltd(002539) , Kunming Chuan Jin Nuo Chemical Co.Ltd(300505) also performed well, with year-on-year growth of about 2583.0%, 592.2%, 110.7% and 99.5% respectively. From the industry situation in the fourth quarter, the average market prices of mainstream phosphorus chemical products such as phosphoric acid, phosphate rock and diammonium phosphate still maintain an upward trend. The average prices of the three in the fourth quarter increased by about 40.4%, 14.3% and 4.5% respectively compared with the third quarter. Under the background of the continuous improvement of the phosphorus chemical industry in the fourth quarter, it is expected that the sector will show brilliant performance in the whole year.
After entering the new energy track, the valuation of the phosphorus chemical industry increased as a whole. Since 2021, several phosphorus chemical enterprises have successively disclosed their layout in new energy business. For example, Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) announced on October 12, 2021 that it plans to establish a joint venture with Ningbo Bangpu to build and operate iron phosphate and other projects. According to the prediction in the previous report of East Asia Qianhai chemical team, it is expected that the total demand for lithium iron phosphate in China will reach more than 2 million tons by 2025. Benefiting from the high demand for lithium iron phosphate, the growth attribute of phosphorus chemical enterprises has been enhanced and the valuation has been improved.
With high performance and upward prosperity, the annual report of phosphorus chemical industry was just at that time. On the one hand, the traditional business of phosphorus chemical industry is continuously contributing profits to the enterprise, and the prices of main products in the industry are at an all-time high; On the other hand, iron phosphate and other new energy materials will be gradually put into operation in the future, constantly creating new profit sources for enterprises and pushing up the valuation level. In this case, we are optimistic about the development of phosphorus chemical industry in 2022. With the advent of the annual report period, the market heat is expected to further improve, the annual report market is ready to go, and the investment layout of phosphorus chemical industry is just at the right time.
Investment advice
Phosphorus chemical enterprises with outstanding performance and business layout in the field of new energy materials such as iron phosphate may benefit, such as: Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) , Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) , Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) .
Risk tips
Adjustment of import and export policies, upgrading of safety and environmental protection policies, and deterioration of international covid-19 epidemic situation.
