\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 918 Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) )
Capacity release drives high income growth, credit impairment drags short-term performance, and maintains the “buy” rating
In 2021, the company achieved revenue of 6.987 billion yuan (+ 43.64%), and maintained high growth, mainly driven by capacity release; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 315 million yuan (- 44.41%), and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 298 million yuan (- 46.64%), which decreased significantly, mainly due to the increase of credit impairment loss caused by the debt default of some real estate customers and the increase of raw material and energy costs. In 2021q4, the revenue was 2.059 billion yuan (+ 34.80%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was – 102 million yuan (- 154.20%). The profit side is under short-term pressure, the profit forecast is lowered, and the profit forecast for 2024 is added. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 602 / 844 / 1113 million (originally RMB 855 / 1114 million from 2022 to 2023), the corresponding EPS will be RMB 1.44/2.02/2.66, and the current share price corresponding to PE is 10.9/7.8/5.9 times. It is optimistic about the improvement of the supply and demand pattern of the industry for a long time, the leading market share will increase and maintain the “buy” rating.
The product structure is continuously optimized, and the income of strategic engineering channels is beautiful
In terms of products, in 2021, the revenue of porcelain glazed tiles / porcelain unglazed tiles / non porcelain glazed tiles / ceramics and thin ceramics was 45.21/4.60/9.41/915 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 59.15% / – 15.70% / + 36.10% / + 39.02%. On the whole, the proportion of products with high gross profit margin increased, and the product structure continued to be optimized. By channel, in 2021, the distribution channel revenue was 3.57 billion yuan (+ 29.70%), the strategic engineering channel revenue was 3.416 billion yuan (+ 61.83%), and the “distribution + b-end” two wheel drive performance increased. The C-end channel continues to sink. By the end of 2021, the company has signed 1540 dealers and 4620 monopoly and sales outlets. At the same time, it has launched diversified and multi format channel modes such as e-commerce / live broadcasting / Internet home decoration; B-end continues to deepen its cooperation with head real estate developers.
Profitability was under short-term pressure, and cash flow decreased significantly under the influence of real estate credit risk release + raw material procurement
Affected by the sharp rise in raw material and energy costs, the gross profit margin in 2021 was – 5.2pct to 29.1% year-on-year. During the period, the rate increased from + 0.3pct to 20.3% year-on-year, of which the rate of sales / management / financial expenses increased from -0.80 / + 0.35pct / + 0.74pct to 9.19% / 6.45% / 0.85% year-on-year respectively. Superimposed on the credit impairment loss of 186 million yuan withdrawn in the whole year, the net interest rate under the comprehensive impact is – 7.14 PCT to 4.51% year-on-year, and the net interest rate in 2021q4 is – 17.24 PCT to – 4.94% year-on-year, and the profitability is under short-term pressure. In terms of cash flow, the net cash flow from operating activities in 2021 was – 114.6% year-on-year, mainly due to the slowdown of project channel payment collection under the release of real estate credit risk and the increase of raw material procurement under the expansion of scale.
Risk tips: production capacity release is less than expected, raw material and energy prices fluctuate, market competition intensifies, etc.
