Views of this month: 1) medical beauty: under the policy dividend, leading enterprises accelerate the layout of Hainan and the industry supply continues to be optimized. The upstream pharmaceutical machinery manufacturers of Yimei accelerate the registration process in China through Hainan, with prominent advantages in R & D and qualification barriers. They are expected to continue to benefit from the regulatory development of Yimei market in the future. The tightening of policies will accelerate the head and compliance of the industry and benefit the long-term development of the industry, such as hyaluronic acid, botulinum toxin Industry leaders with product pipeline layout in the three major fields of recycled materials will drive the upgrading iteration on the supply side of Yimei, and continue to recommend compliance upstream pharmaceutical and mechanical leaders Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) (300896. SZ), Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) (688363. SH); 2) Cosmetics: the growth rate of the market was under pressure in December. In the era of efficacy skin care, the industry development was driven by products. The siphon effect of the promotion activities of the 11th National Congress of the Communist Party of China is superimposed on the impact of multi platform diversion. In December 2021, the growth rate of tmall Taobao beauty market was under pressure. Since 2022, the industry supervision has become stricter, which has prompted the cosmetics industry to enter a rational development stage. It is a leading enterprise with high-quality domestic products on the pan functional skin care products track and market-oriented product development ability on the mass skin care products track, We will jointly push the supply side from flow driven to product driven, and continue to recommend domestic leading Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) (300957. SZ) and Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) (603605. SH) with an increased proportion of online direct sales; 3) Tax exemption: the popularity of tax exemption on outlying islands continues during the new year’s Day holiday, and the opening of new stores + the stabilization of the epidemic in China is expected to drive the marginal growth. In 2021, the tax-free target of Hainan outlying islands will be successfully completed, and the heat of new year’s Day holiday will continue this year. The marginal increment of Hainan this year is expected to come from the opening of new stores in Haikou and the recovery of passenger flow under the stabilization of the epidemic in China. The operating net interest rate of duty-free merchants is expected to be gradually repaired. It is still necessary to track the epidemic prevention and control trend in the short term, but the medium and long-term logic remains unchanged. Continue to recommend China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) (601888. SH), the leader of the; 4) Catering: the medium and long-term chain development trend remains unchanged. In the two years since the outbreak of the epidemic, the passenger flow of catering stores has been limited, but in essence, the industry continues to clear. The head catering enterprises focus on the optimization of store location, digital construction, supply chain construction and internal assessment. Their strategic positioning is becoming clearer and clearer. Under the general trend of increasing the chain rate of the catering industry, we are optimistic about the long-term development of chain catering and catering supply chain enterprises, It is recommended to focus on Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) (001215. SZ) at the b-end of catering service; 5) Hotel / Tourism: the epidemic has repeatedly inhibited residents’ willingness to travel on New Year’s day. At present, enterprises with high growth expectations can be arranged. The epidemic situation is repeated, and China’s demand is under short-term pressure from travel control, but China’s epidemic prevention system is becoming more and more mature, and the impact of the epidemic on the hotel industry is weakening. Subsequently, with the gradual relaxation of China’s travel policy, the performance and valuation of the hotel industry are expected to resonate, the industry continues to clear the leading core value, and continues to recommend Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) (600258. SH) which goes hand in hand with the middle and high-end market, It is recommended to pay attention to the prominent effect of integrated management improvement, rich brand matrix and sufficient medium and high-end reserves of Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) (600754. SH).
Market review: in 2021, the changes of beauty care / social service / trade retail index were + 5.33pct / – 5.07pct / – 0.60pct compared with CSI 300 index respectively. By the end of December 2021, the median valuation of social service industry was 55.30 times, which was at the historical 60.00% quantile since 2011, and the median valuation of Commerce and retail industry was 28.30 times, which was at the historical 8.42% quantile since 2011.
Risk warning: macroeconomic fluctuation risk; Repeated epidemic risk; Risk that the policy launch time is less than expected; Risk of intensified industry competition; New product R & D is less than expected risk; Risk of food safety problems; The growth rate of store expansion is lower than the expected risk.
