\u3000\u30 Shaanxi Zhongtian Rocket Technology Co.Ltd(003009) 82 Suwen Electric Energy Technology Co.Ltd(300982) )
The performance maintained rapid growth, medium and long-term growth, and maintained the "buy" rating
The company's 21fy achieved a revenue of 1.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 35.6%, of which Q1-Q4 single quarter + 85.9% / + 13.8% / + 22.0% / + 43.6%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 300 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 26.8%, Q1-Q4 single quarter increase of + 129.9% / + 26.6% / + 10.3% / + 9.8%. The gross profit margin in the fourth quarter was stable month on month, but affected by the high base, it decreased more year-on-year, dragging down the profit growth. The net CFO of 21fy company was 50 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 210 million yuan. The company announced in the early stage that it plans to invest 1.39 billion more in R & D centers such as equipment production capacity and energy storage and make-up flow. After the equipment production capacity is reached, it is expected to bring about 1.5 billion yuan of revenue and 170 million yuan of net profit. We believe that the company's subsequent traditional power engineering and equipment are expected to benefit from regional and channel expansion, maintain rapid growth, and distributed and energy storage are expected to contribute additional increment. It is expected to have growth in the medium and long term. It is expected that the performance in 22-24 years will be 390 / 480 / 600 million yuan, Corresponding to pe15 / 12 / 9x, maintain the "buy" rating.
The main business of power engineering construction is growing steadily, and new businesses are expected to increase rapidly
21fy company's Engineering (including operation and maintenance) / equipment / design was 1.38/3.3/140 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 35.9% / 60.2% / - 1.2%, and a year-on-year gross profit margin of -0.58 / - 0.5 / + 1.0pct. 21fy's revenue inside / outside Jiangsu Province was 1.73/130 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 41.5% / - 12.8%. New businesses such as follow-up distribution are expected to drive the growth of businesses outside Jiangsu Province. We expect that the proportion of industry and Commerce downstream of 21fy will further increase, the proportion of real estate is expected to continue to decrease, and the subsequent integrated development of EPCO is expected to be more smooth. From the perspective of new business, the company has increased R & D and business development in the field of distributed and energy storage. We expect that the company's distributed photovoltaic EPC business is expected to achieve rapid development this year.
There is still much room for profit recovery and there is plenty of cash on hand
21fy's gross profit margin is 28.6%, with a year-on-year increase of -1.15pct. We judge that it is related to the decline of equipment / operation and maintenance gross profit margin and the decline of the proportion of design and engineering with high gross profit. We believe that after the upstream material cost is relatively stable, the company's profit margin has room to rise, and the rapid growth of revenue volume is expected to reflect the scale effect. 21fy sales / management / R & D / financial expense ratio is 2.2% / 3.7% / 3.5% / - 0.2%, the expense ratio is relatively stable, the proportion of asset and credit impairment loss in revenue is 1.8%, year-on-year + 0.1pct, and the net interest rate under the comprehensive influence is 16.2%, year-on-year -1.1pct. In the past 21 years, the company's cash to cash ratio was 70.8%, year-on-year - 20.4pct, cash to cash ratio was 72.5%, year-on-year-on-year - 1.9pct. Last year, the industry's overall payment collection was tight, but the company's asset liability ratio at the end of 21fy was only 40%, and the cash on hand reached 560 million. At present, the turnover capacity and leverage do not constitute development restrictions. The subsequent industry recovery and fixed growth are in place, which is expected to further optimize the company's capital structure and expansion capacity.
The private leader of electric power EPCO maintains the "buy" rating
The company has a number of technology and patent reserves in the fields of photovoltaic and energy storage, and is expected to benefit from the market opportunities of power grid transformation, incremental distribution and operation and maintenance brought by the promotion of distributed photovoltaic in the future. Considering that it still takes some time for the volume of new business, we slightly lowered the company's 22-24 year performance forecast to RMB 390 / 4.8/600 million (the value was RMB 430 / 560 million 22-23 years ago), gave 21 times PE for 22 years, the corresponding target price was RMB 57.75, and maintained the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the promotion of photovoltaic and energy storage business is less than expected, the production progress of fixed increase projects is less than expected, and the market development speed is less than expected.
