Key investment points:
Steel:
The procurement volume of thread snails this week was – 15.38% month on month and – 34.95% year on year; The total output of the five varieties of steel was + 2.62% month on month and – 11.25% year on year; The total of social Treasury and factory Treasury was + 1.42% month on month, with a year-on-year increase of – 9.39%; The steel price index rose slightly month on month; The gross profit of the four varieties of steel decreased month on month. The sudden closure of Customs in Indonesia led to a rise in the price of raw materials in the short term. In the short term, the rigidity of the supply side under double carbon is obvious, and the downstream demand is weak near the Spring Festival. The government’s position on stabilizing the economic policy in 2022 is relatively firm, so we need to pay attention to the marginal changes in demand brought by the policy.
Industrial metals:
The current price of LME copper / the current price of Yangtze nonferrous copper this week was – 0.79% / – 0.34% month on month; LME aluminum current price / Changjiang nonferrous aluminum current price month on month + 4.04% / + 3.39%. In terms of copper, recently this week, the Fed said that it was more hawkish and bearish on copper prices. In terms of aluminum, large European aluminum smelters plan to suspend operation, and the market is worried that supply is good for aluminum prices. In the short term, China has a firm attitude towards stabilizing the economy, only reducing but not increasing the supply side, and is optimistic about the repair of industrial metal fundamentals.
New energy metals:
In terms of lithium, the price of lithium carbonate this week was + 12.25% month on month. The tight supply and demand of raw materials in the upstream of new energy has not been alleviated. In the short term, the lithium price center will continue to rise.
Rare earth:
The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide / dysprosium oxide / terbium oxide this week was + 4.42% / + 1.56% / + 4.91% month on month. The energy-saving motor policy drives the demand for rare earth permanent magnet, and the space is broad under the superposition of the new energy revolution. In the short term, the tight supply and demand pattern remains unchanged, which is good for the rise of the price center.
Investment advice
Steel: it is recommended to pay attention to Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) (600019. SH); Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) (603995. SH), Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) (000708. SZ) in special steel field; The favorable water conservancy policy is expected to be clear, and it is recommended to pay attention to the pipe company Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co.Ltd(000778) (000778. SZ). Industrial metals: it is recommended to pay attention to Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) (688388. SH), Aluminum Corporation Of China Limited(601600) (601600. SH). New energy metals: it is recommended to pay attention to Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) (002460. SZ) and Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) (002466. SZ). Rare earth plate: it is recommended to pay attention to China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) (600111. SH), China Minmetals Rare Earth Co.Ltd(000831) (000831. SZ).
Risk tips
Raw material price fluctuation risk, lower downstream demand than expected risk, covid-19 epidemic spread than expected risk.
