\u3000\u30 Shaanxi Zhongtian Rocket Technology Co.Ltd(003009) 73 Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) )
Event: Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) released the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022. The revenue of 21 years was 2.817 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 55.66%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 283 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 21.98%, basically falling within the median value of the previous performance forecast. 22q1’s revenue was 630 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.83%, the net profit attributable to the parent was 40 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 45.29%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent was 39 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 45.64%.
The peak season of 21q4 was high, and the growth rate slowed down under the influence of 22q1 epidemic. 1) In the 21st year, the income from frozen baking was 1.718 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 79.7%; the income from cream, fruit products and sauces was 4.7/2.2/180 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 27.0% / 29.3% / 33.2%. The volume of frozen baking Ka channel is obvious, the proportion of bakery channel is the highest, and the growth rate also maintains a high level. The revenue in Q4 peak season achieved a year-on-year growth rate of 40% + and the Henan factory has a certain supplement to the production capacity of doughnuts and pastry. The business growth of baking raw materials and sauces was relatively stable. 2) The revenue growth of 22q1 slowed down, and the revenue of frozen baking was 370 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11%. The epidemic has a great impact on key markets such as Guangdong and Shanghai, especially the sales in March. In terms of channels, bakeries and catering channels are relatively affected by the epidemic, and the estimated growth rate is lower than the average level. Ka channel is relatively weak affected by the epidemic, with a low base in the same period last year, and the estimated growth rate is relatively high. The revenue of baking raw materials was 257 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, mainly due to the superposition of the impact of the epidemic, the raw material sector is in the process of adjustment, and the growth also slowed down.
Under the influence of raw material cost, the profit margin is under pressure. 1) The gross profit margin of year 21 / 22q1 was 34.9% / 33.1%, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.37/3.4pct, mainly due to the pressure on the cost of raw materials, especially the purchase amount of oil accounted for 20% +, the price increase has been obvious since 21 years, and the costs of other products such as sugar and dairy products have also increased. The company has taken relevant measures, and the price of cream, egg tart and other products has also been raised at the beginning of year 22. Compared with the price increase of raw materials, the decline of gross profit margin of year 22q1 has eased. 2) The sales expense ratio of 21 / 22q1 was 12.94% / 12.99%, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.06/0.14pct. Under the cost pressure, the company’s fee investment efficiency was improved, and the management and R & D expense ratio was 9.08% / 12.34%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.4/5.9pct, mainly due to the impact of share based payment and other expenses. The net interest rate attributable to the parent company in 21 years was 10.05%, about 11.5% after excluding excess performance and share based payment (about 40.79 million in total), a slight decrease of 1.3pct compared with 20 years, and the net interest rate attributable to the parent company in 22q1 was 6.36%. After excluding share based payment (about 19.47 million in total), the net interest rate / net interest rate deducted from non parent company was about 9.5% / 8.7%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.20/3.75pct.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: the short-term epidemic has caused some disturbance to the operation, but the company has stable customers, rich product reserves and supplementary production capacity. It is expected to usher in a significant rebound when the external environment improves. Although there is some pressure on the cost side, the company has taken corresponding measures, enhanced scale effect and improved cost investment efficiency. If the subsequent raw material prices are stable, the profit elasticity is also worth looking forward to. Considering the impact of the epidemic and the pressure on raw material costs, the net profit forecast for 22-23 years was lowered to 294 / 416 million yuan (15.4% / 6.8% lower than the previous forecast), and the net profit forecast for 24 years was increased to 541 million yuan, equivalent to EPS of 1.73/2.46/3.19 yuan. The corresponding P / E of the current stock price was 49 / 34 / 26 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the epidemic prevention and control time is prolonged, the price fluctuation risk of raw materials and food safety risk.
