\u3000\u30 Beijing Telesound Electronics Co.Ltd(003004) 13 Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) )
Key investment points
Event: the company disclosed the annual report of 2021. In 2021, it realized a total operating revenue of 15.356 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.64%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was 2.114 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.66%, and the performance was basically consistent with the express disclosed in the early stage. The company disclosed that in the first quarter report of 2022, the total operating revenue was 3.124 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.08%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 507 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34.39%. The performance of the company in the first quarter was in line with market expectations.
The main business is tall and straight, the growth of members is higher than expected, and the advertising business is growing against the trend. The core business mango TV Internet video business (advertising + member + operator business) achieved an operating revenue of RMB 11.261 billion in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 24.29%. At the end of 2021, the number of effective members reached 50.4 million, an increase of 39.5% over the end of 2020, and the member income reached 3.688 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%; Advertising revenue exceeded the 5 billion yuan mark, reaching 5.453 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.75%, far exceeding the growth rate of the industry; The operating revenue of operators was 2.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.17%. The gross profit margin of mango TV Internet video business has increased year by year, of which the business contribution of operators is obvious.
The short-term impact of non mango TV business adjustment is expected to be digested in 2022. Due to the restructuring of the three subsidiaries of mango film and television, mango entertainment and Shanghai mango mutual entertainment, the production and operation business of new media interactive entertainment content achieved a revenue of 1.877 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 32.10%, and the gross profit margin decreased by 5.26pct. The revenue of content e-commerce business was RMB 2.157 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 2.50%. In 2021, the daily peak of Xiaomang app reached 1.26 million. We believe that the adjustment is a short-term factor, which will help the subsequent companies to integrate internal resources and further optimize the company’s investment.
The performance of 2022q1 has declined, but it is mainly affected by epidemic factors and content scheduling. 1) Covid-19 epidemic repeatedly affected the content production progress, resulting in the delay of the scheduling of mango tv2022q1 key variety shows; 2) The base of the same period last year was relatively high. The number of new variety shows on Mango TV in 2022q1 increased to 15, and the number of new shows increased by 7 compared with 2021q1, among which “our hot life” and “Hello Saturday Co.Ltd(002291) ” ranked first. The company is in the leading position in the industry in terms of new volume and year-on-year increment, and its market share continues to expand. In terms of film and television dramas, according to Yunhe data, mango TV effectively played 1.8 billion in 2022q1. Driven by head dramas such as Shangshi and ice hockey boy, the effective play increased by 45% year-on-year. It is also the only positive growth platform among all head long video platforms.
We are optimistic about the reserve of follow-up content and look forward to the performance of 2022q2. The key variety “sound without rest” has been launched on April 24, and “ride the wind and waves 3” is also expected to be launched in 2022q2. By the end of 2021, mango TV had 26 self-made entertainment teams, 29 film and television production teams and 34 strategic studios of “Xinmang plan”, which continued to improve compared with the middle of 2021 (20 / 24 / 30 respectively).
Profit forecast and investment rating: considering the impact of business adjustment, we lowered the company’s EPS from 1.64/1.89 yuan to 1.35/1.60 yuan in 20222023. It is estimated that the EPS in 2024 will be 1.84 yuan, and the current share price corresponds to 21 / 18 / 15 times of PE in 20222024, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: policy risk, epidemic impact exceeded expectations, and the launch of the program was less than expected.
