\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 598 Heilongjiang Agriculture Company Limited(600598) )
The company is mainly engaged in the contract management of cultivated land: the planting and sales of crops such as grains, beans and oil; Agricultural technology development, technical consultation, technical services and technology transfer; Information processing and storage support services; Real estate development and operation; Fertilizer manufacturing and sales, etc. With a total area of 11.56 million mu, five-star and eight Star agricultural companies have a total area of 12.98 million mu.
The operating income of the company has been relatively stable in recent five years, and the non main business expenditure has dragged down the net profit attributable to the parent company in the current period. In 2021, the operating revenue was 3.629 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11.99%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 857 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.39%. Since 2013, after the company began to gradually divest loss assets, land contracting fees constitute the main part of the company's operating income.
Heilongjiang Agriculture Company Limited(600598) implement a two-tier management system with the combination of unification and decentralization, which is dominated by the unified management of the company and based on the contracted management of family farms. When signing the agricultural production contract agreement with the agricultural workers, the company first ensures that the agricultural workers and their families have basic living security. On this basis, the company considers the credit status of the agricultural workers and their families, the previous business performance, the production technology level of the agricultural workers, the willingness of contract management and other conditions.
The supply chain crisis triggered by the epidemic and the production reduction of producer countries caused by abnormal climate have promoted the continuous rise of global Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices in the past two years. In the long term, there is a significant positive correlation between Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price and land rent. Money and (New) demand determine the inevitability of the bottom of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price rising in a long-term ladder, and also determine the inevitability of the company's long-term rental income rising in a ladder. The deviation from the short-term trend, that is, the land rent shows obvious "pressure resistance" in the decline of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price. We believe that this is determined by the scarcity of land resources.
Affected by "supporting the innovative development of leading industrialization enterprises and making them bigger and stronger", Heilongjiang Agriculture Company Limited(600598) company is expected to obtain more land resources from the group, and the advantages of land contracting business can continue to expand in the future. At the same time, the central agricultural office, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas recently issued the assessment measures on increasing the proportion of land transfer income used in agriculture and rural areas, and the land value is expected to be reassessed.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. We estimate that the company's operating revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 3.923 billion yuan, 4.192 billion yuan and 4.494 billion yuan respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 920 million yuan, 972 million yuan and 1.024 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year change of 7.3%, 5.6% and 5.4%. We expect the company's EPS to be 0.52/0.55/0.58 from 2022 to 2024, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price is 27.9 26.4 25.0 times. For the first time, give a "buy" rating.
Risk warning: Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price fluctuation risk, natural disaster risk, risk of changes in industrial and government policies, and the public data used in the research report may be delayed or not updated in time.
