Policy encouragement, supply of high-quality models and endogenous market demand drive the continuous improvement of new energy vehicles
Under the influence of chips, the global new energy vehicles have shown their resilience and trend. The consumption of new energy vehicles has gradually expanded from the demand for license right of way to spontaneous demand. The development of medium Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles has changed from subsidy driven to market driven, and will continue to maintain a high growth state; The European market continues to penetrate and the American market has accumulated a lot. We expect that the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles will reach 5 million in 2022, and the world is expected to exceed 10 million. The wave of electrification in the automotive industry is unstoppable.
Battery factory: the competition is fierce, the capacity is actively expanded, the cost pressure is relieved, and the profit is expected to improve
The high sales volume of new energy vehicles drives the large amount of batteries. It is expected that the global installed capacity of power batteries will reach 290 / 450gwh in 2021 / 2022 and 155 / 230gwh in China. In 2022, with the gradual release of capacity in some links of midstream materials, the high material prices are expected to ease; At the same time, the battery factory negotiates the price with the vehicle manufacturer and gradually establishes a metal linkage mechanism, which can effectively alleviate the cost pressure of the battery factory and repair the gross profit; Under the trend of high demand in the downstream, the early capacity expansion of battery manufacturers will be released, and the shipment will be increased in a large proportion, which is expected to usher in a good situation of simultaneous increase in volume and price.
Upstream lithium resources: the relationship between supply and demand is highly tense, the lithium price center remains high, and the profit moves up
Benefiting from the sustained and rapid development of the new energy industry chain, the optimization of demand structure and the amplification of leading demand increment of lithium resources lead to its periodic dilution and gradual growth; South American lithium triangle and Western Australia mines still dominate the global lithium supply, and China’s development speed and supply proportion have increased. However, most high-quality mines and salt lakes have been developed, and the difficulty and progress of new development of lithium resources are difficult to match the speed and magnitude of downstream demand growth. The strategy of lithium resources has been continuously strengthened. All parties have increased the global layout. The supply of lithium salt may become the decisive factor for the release of capacity in the middle and lower reaches. It is estimated that the supply and demand difference of lithium from 2021 to 2023 will be – 1.6 / – 1.3 / – 6000 tons of LCE. The supply and demand strongly supports the central high of lithium price and the upward movement of profits.
Midstream materials: gradually release the production capacity, pay attention to the links with clear pattern, obvious advantages and tight supply and demand
The positive lithium iron phosphate maintains a high growth rate, and the high nickel ternary is gradually mature and loaded; Negative electrode graphitization benefits enterprises due to the landing or delay of high energy consumption capacity, tight supply and demand and high self supply rate; Diaphragm and copper foil links are affected by equipment and technical barriers, and high-quality production capacity is tight; In terms of new technology, we pay attention to the progress of coating film, new lithium salt lifsi, pet copper foil plating, and the localization process of aluminum-plastic film.
Investment advice
It is suggested to pay attention to three main investment lines: first, battery plants with capacity release, cost pressure relief and gross profit recovery, such as: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) ; Second, lithium resource companies with high lithium price supported by supply and demand and expected to achieve excess profits, such as: Keda Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600499) , Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) ; Third, midstream material link companies with clear pattern, obvious advantages and tight supply and demand, such as: Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , etc.
Risk tips
The development of new energy vehicles and energy storage is less than expected; Disruptive breakthroughs in related technologies; Product prices fell more than expected; Price fluctuation of raw materials.
