\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 851 Shenzhen Megmeet Electrical Co.Ltd(002851) )
Key investment points
In 2021, the revenue was + 23% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was – 4% year-on-year. The performance was lower than the market expectation. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 4.156 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 23.08% (excluding the impact of new energy vehicle business, the total revenue was + 28.14% year-on-year); The net profit attributable to the parent company was 389 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 3.50%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 262 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 14.12%. Among them, 2021q4 / 2022q1 achieved an operating revenue of 1.234/1.193 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 34.09% / + 34.13%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 68 / 73 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 45.09% / – 9.25%. In 2021, the total orders were + 48% year-on-year. However, due to the shortage of chips, the delivery time of orders was extended, the revenue recognition was less than the increase of orders, and the overall performance was less than the market expectation. The growth rate of net profit is lower than that of revenue, which is due to the decline of gross profit margin caused by the rise in the price of bulk and chip raw materials, and the superposition of increased investment at the management end. The gross profit margin in 2021 / 2022q1 was 26.59% / 24.08%, with a year-on-year increase of -1.79 / – 1.96pct; The net interest rate attributable to the parent company was 9.36% / 6.16%, respectively -2.58 / -2.94pct.
Multi business continues the good development trend before: 1) intelligent home appliance electric control: the revenue will reach 2.171 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 23.69%; Frequency conversion appliances are aimed at overseas, HVAC and air conditioning product lines continue to grow rapidly, and microwave ovens and heat pumps are stable; The recovery of consumption has led to the steady improvement of flat panel display business, good growth of business display and laser, and the progress of office automation in Japan has been delayed due to the impact of the epidemic; Intelligent sanitary ware continued to grow steadily; 2) Industrial power supply: the revenue was 882 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 26.09%. In 2021, the demand for medical power supply slowed down, superimposed with factors such as long order delivery cycle, which decreased slightly year-on-year; Industrial power products have also developed steadily, and LED display products have benefited from effective epidemic control and good growth; In terms of communication power supply, there are a large number of overseas leading customers. In 2021, the revenue doubled and ranked eighth in the sales volume of global power suppliers. 3) Industrial automation: the revenue was 781 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 45.38%. In 2021, the core products of servo control industry grew rapidly, and the industrial structure of PLC was relatively good Beijing Emerging Eastern Aviation Equipment Co.Ltd(002933) intelligent welding machine is growing at a high speed, its high-end position is stable, and the expansion of hydraulic servo pump and precision connection is smooth, with considerable growth; Preliminary progress has also been made in intelligent oil production and industrial microwave equipment, and the extension and expansion of linear motor and other electric power technologies continue to be promoted. 4) New energy vehicles and rail transit: the revenue was 301 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of – 14.32%, which was narrower than that in 2020. Orders for new energy vehicles grew rapidly, but problems such as lack of cores and bulk price increases delayed order delivery, dragging down revenue growth. In addition to BAIC, the customer brings increment through Ningbo Feishi motion control fixed-point Nezha MCU (motor control unit); In terms of products, the field of charging pile module, on-board compressor and thermal management is in the early stage, and rail transit remains stable.
Profit forecast and investment rating: considering the high price of raw materials and the delay in order delivery caused by the shortage of chips, we reduced the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2023 to 503 million yuan (- 126 million yuan) and 687 million yuan (- 109 million yuan) respectively. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company to be 951 million yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of + 29% / + 37% / + 38% respectively, corresponding to 19 times, 14 times and 10 times of the current price PE respectively. In 2022, 25 times PE will be given, and the target price is 25.25 yuan / share, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the macro-economy is down, the expansion of new energy vehicle customers is less than expected, and the epidemic situation in China is intensifying.
