\u3000\u30 Beijing Telesound Electronics Co.Ltd(003004) 13 Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) )
Event:
The company announced in its 2021 annual report that the revenue was 15.36 billion yuan (YoY + 9.64%), the net profit attributable to the parent was 2.11 billion yuan (YoY + 6.66%), and the non net profit deducted was 2.06 billion yuan (YoY + 11.57%). It is proposed to pay a cash dividend of 1.3 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares.
According to the quarterly report of 2022q1, the revenue is 3.12 billion yuan (YoY – 22.08%), the net profit attributable to the parent company is 510 million yuan (YoY – 34.39%), and the net profit not attributable to the parent company is 470 million yuan (YoY – 38.49%).
Key investment points:
The overall performance in 2021 was stable: the revenue in 2021 was 15.36 billion yuan (YoY + 9.64%), the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.11 billion yuan (YoY + 6.66%), and the non net profit deducted was 2.06 billion yuan (YoY + 11.57%). ① Profitability and expense ratio: in 2021, the gross profit margin is 35.49% (YoY + 1.39pct), and the net profit margin is 13.77% (YoY -0.36pct). The expense rate during the period was 21.72% (YoY + 1.08pct), mainly from the increase of sales expenses and R & D expenses. ② Quarterly: the revenue of 2021q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 and 2022q1 is 40.09/38.44/37.78/37.25 and 3.124 billion yuan; The net profit attributable to the parent company is 773 / 6.78 / 5.29/134 and 507 million yuan, y oy + 61.09% / + 8.74% / + 3.93% / – 63.78% and – 34.39%. In the second half of 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of revenue and profit decreased, which was mainly caused by strengthened supervision, less content broadcasting and the structural adjustment of subsidiaries; The year-on-year decline in revenue in 2022q1 is mainly due to the repeated epidemic, which has affected the content production progress and scheduling. Mango TV head variety is only broadcast “big detective 7”, and popular variety shows such as “sister 2” and “Ming detective 6” in 2021q1 have led to a high base of advertising and member income. ③ Sub business: in 2021, the revenue of mango TV Internet video business (including advertising + member + operator business) was RMB 11.261 billion (YoY + 24.29%) and the gross profit margin was 43.61% (YoY + 2.92pct); The production revenue of new media interactive entertainment content is 1.877 billion yuan (yoy-32.10%), the revenue accounts for 12.23% and the gross profit margin is 17.09% (yoy-5.26pct); The media retail revenue is 2.157 billion yuan (YoY + 2.50%), and the gross profit margin is 8.73% (YoY -11.61pct).
The number of members exceeded 50 million, and the core business mango TV performed well: ① member business: the member income was 3.688 billion yuan (YoY + 13.3%), and the number of effective members reached 50.4 million (YoY + 39.5%) at the end of 2021. The rapid growth of members was in line with expectations. In 2021, arppu was 85.2 yuan (YoY – 28.7%), which fell to a certain extent, due to the large discount of “youth Mango Festival” and other activities. In January 2022, the price of members increased, and the price increase range of Apple end was 4.8% – 9.4%; The price increase of Android end is 22.5% – 28.9%, which directly stimulates a new round of member renewal and arppu recovery, which is expected to increase member income in 2022. ② Advertising business: the advertising revenue reached 5.453 billion yuan (YoY + 31.75%), 118 new advertisers were developed, and the total number of mango TV soft advertising, hard advertising, programmed advertising and other advertising brands exceeded 1000. The investment amount of the head variety show has repeatedly reached a new high, and the investment amount of sister 2 is the highest in the industry. The advertising revenue of 2021h2 is 2.3 billion yuan, which is basically the same as that of 2020h2. It is mainly affected by less content scheduling. The core variety show “detective 7” of 2021q4 is postponed. The broadcasting of “happy base camp” is suspended in October. There are no other popular variety shows in 2021q4 since the end of “brother cutting through thorns” in October. In addition, affected by the epidemic situation, weak consumption and policies, the willingness of advertising in Internet / consumer goods / education and other industries is not strong. ③ Operators: the revenue of operators is 2.12 billion yuan (YoY + 27.17%), and they carry out in-depth strategic cooperation with mobile Migu around large screen, 5g innovation business and other services.
2022q1 has made a breakthrough in the broadcasting volume of the series, and is optimistic about the sound development of the business based on the improvement of high-quality content: (1) series: the company has 29 series teams and 34 new mang studios. Mango tv2021 launched 170 various film and television dramas throughout the year, including 55 key film and television dramas and 84 “big mang plan” mini dramas. According to Yunhe data, the effective broadcast volume of mango TV series in 2021 is 6.9 billion (YoY – 34%); In 2022q1, with only 14 new episodes (22 new episodes in 2021q1), the effective playback volume of positive films of the series increased by 45% year-on-year. The monsoon theater continued to output steadily. Jiang Zhao dawn premiered on January 27, 2022, and lieyien ranked second in the broadcasting index in February, with a total of 1.26 billion. The monsoon theater has reserved “wife’s choice” and “Zhang Weiguo’s summer” to be broadcast. In addition, the solo drama Shangshi was premiered on February 22, 2022, with a cumulative broadcast volume of more than 2.3 billion, and the reserve of popular potential dramas such as “youth Faction 2” and “long river in the world” has been eliminated. (2) Variety show: with 26 variety show production teams and strong self-control ability, mango TV launched more than 40 self-made variety shows in 2021. According to Yunhe data, the effective broadcasting volume of mango TV variety show in 2021 was 5.3 billion (YoY – 29%); The effective broadcasting volume of variety shows in 2022q1 is 900 million (YoY – 28%), which is caused by the delay of head variety shows and the high base of 2021q1. In January 2022, kuaibun was revised and renamed “Hello Saturday Co.Ltd(002291) ” and went online again. Up to now, the average number of episodes has been 132 million, which is higher than 88 million episodes of kuaibun 2021 before the suspension of broadcasting, and the broadcasting situation is stable; “Big detective 7” premiered on January 28, 2022, with a cumulative broadcasting volume of more than 2.88 billion, ranking second in the broadcasting index list of Yien from February to April. At present, the first phase of the music competition program “living sound” premiered on April 24, with more than 150 million broadcasts on the first day; “Sister riding the wind and waves 3”, “yearning for life 6” and other popular variety shows have been recorded and are expected to be broadcast in 2022q2. There are variety shows to be broadcast in reserve throughout the year, such as brother 2 and escape 4.
The layout of the new track continued to increase: (1) Xiaomang, an e-commerce platform, was upgraded to a “e-commerce platform for trendy domestic content”, with a peak dau of 1.26 million and a KPI. Mango m-city, a self operated live entertainment brand, has opened its stores in Changsha and Shanghai, and is expected to open more stores in Chengdu, Wuhan and other cities. (2) Multi directional entry into the metauniverse: Mango TV cooperates with Hunan Radio and television to explore the construction of mango metauniverse based on the national 5g Key Laboratory of radio and television: Launch technological innovation achievements such as virtual host “Yahoo”, AR star co shooting interactive system and interactive video platform, and build the infrastructure of mango metauniverse through “interaction + virtual + cloud rendering”, In addition, the variety “Hello Saturday Co.Ltd(002291) ” introduced the virtual host Xiaoyang.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the supervision of “erchuang” of short video platform is overweight, the content supervision policy of “Qinglang action” is expected to continue, and the competition pattern of long video platform is expected to improve. As a party media and state-owned enterprise, the company takes practical actions to resist industrial chaos and establish a new benchmark for the development of state-owned Internet enterprises; Good cash flow and profitability, and establish a positive ecological cycle of long video content. We adjusted the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to RMB 2.41/28.0/3.17 billion, corresponding to EPS of RMB 1.23/1.43/1.61 and PE of 23.0/19.8/17.6x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: macroeconomic growth slows down, variety attraction fails / member growth / content performance fails to meet expectations, impact of new business layout, copyright price increase, new technology layout fails to meet expectations, policies, brain drain, change of advertisers’ budget preference, corporate governance structure, market style switching and other risks.
