\u3000\u30 Beijing Telesound Electronics Co.Ltd(003004) 13 Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) )
Event: the company released 2021 annual report & 2022 Q1 quarterly report. In 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 15.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.62%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.114 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 2.078 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 12.5%. Mango TV Internet video business (advertising + member + operator business) achieved an operating revenue of 11.261 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.3%. 22q1 company achieved an operating revenue of 3.124 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.1%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 507 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34.4%.
The core business grew steadily, and Xiaomang was increased by the controlling shareholder of the company. 1) Internet video business: the revenue of advertising business is 5.453 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 31.75%. It is expected that the head project soft broadcasting will make a great contribution to investment attraction; The operator’s business realized an operating revenue of 2.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.17%, which is expected to be mainly driven by businesses outside the province. In 2021, the company’s member income was 3.688 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%, and the number of members reached 50.4 million, a year-on-year increase of 39.5%. However, the member arppu was 73.2 yuan / year, a decrease of 18.8% compared with 90.1 yuan / year in the same period last year. It is expected to be greatly affected by promotion. 3) Other businesses: the company’s content production and e-commerce business totaled 4.1 billion yuan, down 17% year-on-year. Xiaomang’s revenue increased from 7.61 million yuan in 2020 to 250 million yuan in 2021, but Xiaomang’s app investment increased in 2021, resulting in a loss of 280 million yuan (11.66 million yuan in 2020). Mango media, the controlling shareholder of the company, increased the capital of its wholly-owned subsidiary Xiaomang e-commerce by 286 million yuan, of which 25 million yuan was included in the registered capital. After the capital increase and share expansion, the company and mango media held 66.67% / 33.33% of Xiaomang respectively.
The decline of 22q1 performance is mainly due to the impact of project scheduling and high base. According to the data of Yien, the broadcast volume of 22q1 mango TV was 20.39 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 15.3% and a month on month increase of 29.4%. Among them, the broadcast volume of online variety shows was 6.92 billion, down 38.8% year-on-year. The broadcast volume mainly came from big detective 7 (2.01 billion) and our hot life (1.99 billion). The number of episodes played was 8.94 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%. The dramas with good performance include monsoon drama “Jiang Zhao dawn” (with a broadcast volume of 1.26 billion), “Shang Shi” (with a broadcast volume of 2.22 billion) and “have a good meal with you” (with a broadcast volume of 1.42 billion). However, sister 2, which was launched on 21q1 mango TV, has a large number of broadcasts and investment volume, raising the single quarter performance base.
In 2022, the quality and quantity of content will be upgraded, and the change of industry competition pattern contains new opportunities. 1) In terms of head entertainment, “sound without rest” premiered on April 24, with a broadcast volume of more than 100 million (data of cat’s eye Professional Edition), and “sister 3” will also be launched in Q2. 2) In terms of dramas, mango TV continued to increase its investment in dramas in 2022, of which the number of “monsoon dramas” was 16, which was significantly higher than the number of 6 dramas broadcast in 2021. The overall broadcast volume of dramas and advertising investment are expected to rise to a higher level. 3) At present, among the head video platforms, mango TV is the only new media platform with state-owned background. It has advantages in content review and topic selection. If the industry pattern changes, resources are expected to concentrate on mango. 4) Since January 2, members have implemented price adjustment, which is lower than iqiyi and Tencent. It is expected that arppu will enter the promotion channel in 2022.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: 2022q2 “sound generation” and “sister 3” will go online or become new pop models. Long term optimistic about the company’s unique state-owned platform advantages and strong content output capacity. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 2.56/28.8/3.32 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 21.0% / 12.7% / 15.0%. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: industry competition intensifies, user growth is less than expected, and advertising revenue is less than expected.
