\u3000\u3 Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) 129 Runa Smart Equipment Co.Ltd(301129) )
The annual revenue increased steadily. The company disclosed in the annual report of 2021 that in 2021, the operating revenue was 530 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 27.31%, of which the revenue of ultrasonic heat meter was 73 million yuan (accounting for 13.73% of revenue), with a year-on-year increase of 12.27%; The intelligent modular heat exchange unit realized a revenue of RMB 114million (accounting for 21.61% of the revenue), with a year-on-year increase of 54.43%; The revenue of heating energy-saving system project was 146 million yuan (accounting for 27.62% of revenue), with a year-on-year increase of 47.10%. The net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 3.671 billion PCT, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.601 billion PCT, and the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 2.601 billion PCT, representing a year-on-year decrease of 2.601 billion PCT, representing a year-on-year decrease of 2.601 billion PCT. In 2021, the sales expense was 34 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 16.76%; The management fee was 43 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.97%; The R & D cost was 36 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.90%. In terms of 21q4 alone, the operating revenue was 403 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.79%, the net profit attributable to the parent was 159 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.08%, and the net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent was 134 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.17%.
Win large orders. On March 30, 2022, the company issued a suggestive announcement on winning the bid. On April 6, the company issued a progress announcement on winning the bid. It was determined that the company won the bid for the first bid section of AI intelligent heating project in Shizhong District of Zaozhuang Thermal Power Corporation through public bidding. The bid winning price was 247 million yuan. The bid winning scope included AI and intelligent heating management platform, intelligent hydraulic balance device, AI controller at heat exchange station level AI intelligent heat exchange equipment, room temperature collector and other equipment supply, equipment installation technical guidance, operation regulation and service in two heating seasons, etc. If the project can be formally signed and successfully implemented in the future, it is expected to have a positive impact on the company’s operating revenue and operating profit.
Equity incentive shows confidence. On March 28, 2022, the company announced the Runa Smart Equipment Co.Ltd(301129) 2022 restricted stock incentive plan (Draft), which plans to grant 900000 restricted shares to 24 incentive objects, accounting for 1.22% of the total share capital of the company, including 740000 shares for the first time, 160000 shares reserved, and the grant price of restricted shares is 20.00 yuan / share. The performance assessment indicators granted at the company level for the first time are based on the operating revenue of 2021. The target is that the growth of operating revenue from 2022 to 2024 will not be less than 20%, 44% and 72.80% respectively, and the unlocking proportion of each period will be 40%, 30% and 30% respectively. It is estimated that the impact of the first grant of the incentive plan on the accounting cost will be amortized by RMB 9.3518 million, RMB 102768 million, RMB 4.079 million and RMB 1.0277 million respectively from 2022 to 2025, and the total cost to be amortized is RMB 246642 million.
Adhere to technological innovation and continuous iteration of products. In 2021, in order to create a more advanced and leading urban low-carbon intelligent heating overall solution, we continued to invest in research and development of intelligent hardware and software products, with a year-on-year increase of more than 22.9%. We developed and improved hardware products including AI edge controller, large range ultrasonic heat meter, micro torque low-power intelligent balance valve, high-efficiency intelligent heat exchange unit and so on; Successfully developed a variety of heating artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms, and integrated (AI) artificial intelligence algorithms and big data into the intelligent heating platform and Reina cloud platform, realizing the accurate prediction and on-demand collaborative scheduling of sources, stations, units and households; The innovative application of edge computing technology has achieved good energy-saving effect.
The industry has broad space. In 2020, China’s urban heating area will be more than 14 billion square meters. According to the current urban heating area and the average cost of 60 yuan / m2, the scale of heating energy-saving transformation in the stock market will exceed 840 billion yuan in the future. It is estimated that by 2030, China’s urban heating area will increase from more than 14 billion square meters in 2020 to more than 20 billion square meters, an increase of nearly 50%. According to the calculation of the newly added heating area of 6 billion square meters and the average cost of 60 yuan / m2, the incremental market scale of heating energy conservation in the future will exceed 360 billion yuan.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. Under the current background of “carbon peaking and carbon neutralization”, the way out for the sustainable development of urban heating is to maximize energy efficiency through intelligent technology. The heating industry is facing great pressure of transformation and upgrading. In 2021, the company’s R & D investment increased, and technological innovation and business model upgrading have achieved results. In the future, the company will continue to increase research and investment in core technologies, simultaneously strengthen data center technology research, effectively promote the digital transformation of the heating industry in combination with the heating industry, and finally realize digital asset management. We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 2.25% (down 2.60%) / 2.90 (- 9.38%) / 369 million yuan (newly introduced), EPS will be 3.05 yuan, 3.94 yuan and 5.00 yuan respectively, and the PE valuation in 2022 will be 30 times (originally 40x P / E ratio in 2022), and the corresponding target price will be 91.50 yuan (down 27.15%), maintaining the rating of “better than the big market”.
Risk warning. The “double carbon” does not drive the downstream demand significantly, the regional expansion slows down and the industry competition intensifies.
