\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 036 China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) )
In the first quarter, the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 12.5%, and roe was at a high level. In the first quarter of 2022, the revenue was 91.99 billion yuan (+ 8.5%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 36.02 billion yuan (+ 12.5%). The annualized ROA was 1.54%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.04 percentage points, and the annualized roe was 19.24%, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.30 percentage points.
The slowdown in revenue growth in the first quarter was mainly due to the decline in wealth management fee income. The growth rate of revenue in the first quarter decreased by 5.5 percentage points compared with that in 2021. Among them, the net fee income in the first quarter increased by 5.5% year-on-year and decreased by 13.3 percentage points compared with that in 2021, which was mainly dragged down by the downturn of capital market in the first quarter and the year-on-year decrease of wealth management fee income by 11.11%. However, the income of asset management fees and custody fees increased by 47.55% and 16.33% respectively year-on-year, showing the advantages and strong toughness of the company’s large wealth management business.
The net interest margin increased by 3bps month on month, and the growth rate of loans slowed down slightly, but deposits expanded better. The net interest margin in the first quarter was 2.51%, narrowed by 1bp year-on-year and increased by 3bps compared with the fourth quarter of last year, mainly because the loan yield in the first quarter increased by 4bps to 4.68% compared with the fourth quarter of last year. Total loans increased by 3.4% in the first quarter, of which retail loans increased by 1.26%. Due to the impact of the epidemic and the great downward pressure on the economy, the credit growth slowed down. However, the advantages of big wealth management brought about a good increase of 5.25% in deposits.
Retail AUM achieved good growth and optimized customer structure. At the end of the period, the retail AUM reached 11.34 trillion yuan and the number of retail customers was 176 million, an increase of 5.39% and 1.73% respectively over the beginning of the year. Among them, AUM of private banks was 3.5 trillion yuan, and the number of private bank customers was 125000, an increase of 3.15% and 2.56% respectively over the beginning of the year.
Bad real estate assets have been exposed, but the overall asset quality is excellent. The non-performing rate at the end of the period was 0.94%, the attention rate was 0.96%, and the overdue rate was 1.09%, which increased by 3bps, 12bps and 7bps respectively compared with the beginning of the year, mainly due to the exposure of non-performing assets in the real estate field. At the end of the period, the non-performing rate of the company’s development loan was 2.57%, an increase of 1.18 percentage points over the beginning of the year, which was mainly affected by the risk exposure of high debt real estate enterprises and individual poorly managed customers. However, the ratio of “non-performing / overdue 60 +” at the end of the period was 134%, and the non-performing index was still low, with excellent asset quality.
Investment suggestion: maintain the profit forecast and maintain the “overweight” rating.
After more than 20 years of sedimentation, the company has improved its management mechanism, organizational culture, talent team training, and established a mature professional system in terms of brand, customers, products and channels. The change of management does not change the logic of long-term improvement of big wealth management. Maintain the forecast of net profit of 139.4/159.9/184.1 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 16.2% / 14.7% / 15.1%, diluted EPS of 5.38/6.20/7.16 yuan, and the dynamic Pb corresponding to the current stock price of 1.42x/1.26x/1.10x. Maintain the “overweight” rating in 2022.
Risk tips: 1. The epidemic situation is repeated, and the steady growth policy is less than expected, resulting in less than expected economic recovery; 2. The development trend of wealth management business is less than expected.
