\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 57 Robotechnik Intelligent Technology Co.Ltd(300757) )
Event: on the evening of April 22, the company issued a performance forecast amendment announcement, and the revised performance was a loss.
In 2021, the revenue increased by more than 100% year-on-year, and the performance was revised to a loss of 44-48.5 million by the adjustment of accounting items. The company originally made a profit of 20-30 million yuan in 2021. After the adjustment of some items after financial audit, the total impact of asset impairment loss / credit impairment loss and processing fee on the performance of the company was about 73 million yuan. The company expects that the revenue in 2021 will be about 1.08-1.09 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 104106%. The net profit loss attributable to the parent company is 44-48.5 million yuan, and the net profit loss attributable to the parent company after deduction is about 70-74.5 million yuan. We believe that the accounting adjustment should have a one-time impact and is not expected to have an impact on the subsequent profitability.
The silicon optical industry is on the eve of explosion, and 2022 will be the start-up year of 800g optical module
In the OFC exhibition in March, Hengtong lockley and xuchuang technology released or demonstrated 800g silicon optical module; In April, Hubei Daily reported that the 400g optical module of huagongzhengyuan's self-made silicon optical chip has been put into operation, and the 800g silicon optical chip is expected to be officially launched in the second quarter of this year. Aridamo Institute believes that in the next three years, silicon optical chips will support high-speed information transmission in large data centers. Lightcounting predicts that 800g optical modules will gradually increase in 2022, and the scale is expected to exceed 400g optical module market by 2024, reaching US $7 billion.
Ficont EC is a global leader in optoelectronic semiconductor automatic sealing and testing equipment, which will benefit from the outbreak of silicon optical industry
The company is actively promoting the acquisition plan. The target ficontec to be acquired is one of the leading equipment manufacturers in the field of optoelectronic and semiconductor automatic packaging and testing in the world. Its equipment is at the world leading level in the technical application of high-speed communication optical modules. The fully automatic equipment produced in mass is suitable for the packaging and testing of 400g / 800g high-speed optical modules, and has completed the development and testing of the cutting-edge 1.6T optical module automatic coupling equipment, Customers are world-renowned enterprises in silicon optics and related fields, such as Intel, Cisco, lumentum, fabrinet, Finisar, Huawei, etc.
At present, the implied market value of ficont EC is about 1 billion yuan, and there is a large space for the total market value of the company from June to December
1) ficontec: it is estimated that the revenue from 2022 to 2023 will be 4 / 540 million yuan, and the net profit will be 4 / 80 million yuan respectively. According to the 80% equity ratio and the comprehensive industry P / s, the corresponding market value is about 3.7 billion yuan; 2) Robotechnik Intelligent Technology Co.Ltd(300757) ontology business: comprehensive industry P / E valuation, with a market value of about 2-3 billion yuan. As of the current market value of 3.6 billion yuan, ficontec's implied market value is about 1 billion yuan. It is expected that there is a large upward space for the company's total market value in the next 6-12 months.
Profit forecast
Taking into account the high equity incentive expenses and many adverse factors caused by the epidemic, without considering the impact of the acquisition, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be -0.46/0.62/144 million yuan from 2021 to 2023, with a year-on-year increase of - / - / 131%, corresponding to PE - / 55 / 24x. As the leader of high-end automation equipment, photovoltaic and photoelectric semiconductor equipment will blossom at many points in the future and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
1) the acquisition progress is less than expected; 2) Income and recognition affected by the epidemic; 3) The development of semiconductor equipment is less than expected
