\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 105 Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) )
Key investment points
Event: the company released the annual report of 2021 and the performance forecast of the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2021, the operating revenue was 1.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.4%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 680 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.5%; In 2022q1, the revenue was 970 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 80.1%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 430 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.2%.
Core products have recovered significantly and are optimistic about the rapid growth of annual performance. In 2021, on the whole, the revenue from conventional business was 719 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 91%, and the revenue from covid-19 related business was 1.149 billion yuan (- 3.25%). In terms of business segments: 1) in the field of life sciences, the revenue in 2021 was 1.339 billion yuan, including 533 million yuan in conventional business, a year-on-year increase of 66%, 806 million yuan in covid-19 business, a year-on-year increase of 21%. In the field of scientific research reagents, hundreds of new product SKUs have been newly expanded; In the field of sequencing, we are vigorously expanding the business of pathogenic microbial metagenome sequencing and tumor high-throughput sequencing; In terms of sales personnel, there are nearly 600 sales personnel at present. We expect that the sales personnel are expected to increase significantly in 2022, driving the further expansion of the company's coverage. 2) Biomedicine: in 2021, the sales revenue reached 97 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 774%. Focusing on the development opportunity of vaccine industry, the company is vigorously carrying out immunological evaluation business. In the field of mRNA vaccine, the company has carried out technical research on core enzyme raw materials such as universal nuclease, T7 polymerase, capping enzyme and transferase, and has completed the R & D and production of more than 10 enzyme raw material products. We are optimistic about the performance flexibility brought to the company by the listing of domestic mRNA covid-19 vaccine in the future; 3) In vitro diagnosis: in 2021, the revenue was 433 million yuan, including 89 million yuan from routine business, with a year-on-year increase of 104%, and 344 million yuan from covid-19 related business, with a year-on-year decrease of 34%. At present, the company has passed the market introduction period and began to gradually increase the quantity. Routine projects such as cardio cerebrovascular, inflammation and infection have increased steadily, and characteristic projects such as gastric function and self exemption have begun to realize sales.
Carry out overseas market layout and actively develop overseas business. In 2021, the company further carried out overseas sales. It mainly carried out covid-19 related products overseas, with a revenue of 270 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.97%, and achieved sales in Southeast Asia, Europe, South America and other regions. In addition, the company has preliminarily completed the channel construction, customer development and team building of the first pilot country in the Southeast Asian market.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. Considering the rapid growth of the company's routine business, we expect the company's performance from 2022 to 2024 to be 8.4/9.4/1.18 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to 38 / 34 / 27 times of PE respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the risk of intensified market competition; Product sales are less than expected; Covid-19 risk of sharp decline in business demand.
