\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 085 Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) )
Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) pharmaceutical industry and pharmaceutical business sectors rebounded simultaneously: after experiencing capacity adjustment and the impact of the epidemic, the company actively adjusted and responded. At present, the production capacity of Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) parent company and its subsidiaries Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) technology can meet the production needs of the company. In the post epidemic era, the impact of the epidemic is more regional, and the impact on the drug retail industry is further reduced. Since 2021, the Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) pharmaceutical industry and pharmaceutical business sectors have both bottomed out and warmed up. The revenue of cardio cerebrovascular field, which plays a pillar role in the pharmaceutical industry, has increased by 20% year-on-year, and other fields have increased steadily. There were inflection points in the expansion rate of stores and the income of single stores in the pharmaceutical business sector, reversing the decline in the previous two years and stabilizing for the better.
The revenue of core products increased rapidly and steadily: Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) although there are many products, the leading effect of large varieties is obvious. In 2021, the revenue of the top five varieties accounted for half of the revenue of the overall pharmaceutical industry. From the perspective of retail terminal, Angong Niuhuang Pill accounted for about 40% of the overall sales scale of Chinese patent medicine in 2021. For a long time, Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) Angong Niuhuang Pill has increased both in volume and price, driving the rapid and stable growth of the company's sales. As a valuable Chinese patent medicine, the price of Angong Niuhuang Pill is in a rising trend due to the scarcity of raw materials and the given health care attributes. At the same time, we estimate that Angong Niuhuang Pill will have 2-3 times the growth space by 2030.
The overall price increase of Chinese patent medicine raises the gross profit: Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) the prices of core products in the four fields of cardio cerebrovascular, tonic, heat clearing and Gynecology have increased year by year. The company has gradually adjusted the pace of price increase and entered the small step price increase mode of high frequency and low range since 2019, which has brought the synchronous increase of gross profit rate in the four fields while stabilizing product sales.
The marketing and R & D strategies formulated by the company around large varieties are expected to promote the simultaneous rise of quantity and price of large varieties: the company deepens the reform of sales and marketing, creates the business model of "4 + 2" (four business divisions and two special teams), and focuses on the two marketing cores of "product" and "channel". Increase the publicity of Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) brand and products, continue to deepen the brand moat, reduce the level of dealers, strengthen the control of the overall channel, and help open up the channel of product price increase in an all-round way. The company's R & D strategy also focuses on large varieties, and simultaneously carries out the secondary cultivation and indication expansion of large varieties, so as to expand the scale and volume of existing large varieties. Under the dual role of product marketing and R & D, large varieties will have the power of sustained and rapid growth in the future.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the company's revenue is expected to be 16.681 billion yuan / 19.018 billion yuan / 21.544 billion yuan respectively in 2022, 2023 and 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 14% / 14% / 13%. The corresponding net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.483 billion yuan / 1.775 billion yuan / 2.086 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 21% / 20% / 18%. The corresponding PE valuation is 35.12x/29.34x/24.97x. The company is a leading enterprise in the field of traditional Chinese medicine, with a strong brand moat, stable and rapid growth of core products, continuous deepening of marketing reform and further reversal of overall performance. For the first time, give a "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the risk that the sales promotion of key products is less than expected. The risk of reducing the gross profit of products due to excessive price rise of raw materials. The risk that the price increase of the product is less than expected. The epidemic has a wide range and the risk of affecting product sales. Lower than expected risk of store expansion.
