\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 233 Thinkon Semiconductor Jinzhou Corp(688233) )
Key investment points:
Thinkon Semiconductor Jinzhou Corp(688233) is the world's leading manufacturer of monocrystalline silicon materials, accounting for 13-15% of the global monocrystalline silicon material market in 2018. China's silicon component enterprises only involve the processing of silicon components, and the raw material monocrystalline silicon still needs to be purchased. Thinkon Semiconductor Jinzhou Corp(688233) expands downstream, which is expected to give full play to the synergistic advantages, become an enterprise engaged in the layout of the whole industrial chain of silicon components in China, and also the second driving force for the growth of the company.
The market scale of monocrystalline silicon materials has grown steadily, and most of the market participants are Japanese and Korean enterprises.
The global market scale of large-diameter monocrystalline silicon materials is about US $ Shenzhen Jt Automation Equipment Co.Ltd(300400) million. Thanks to the increase in the shipment of etching equipment and the increase in the demand for silicon components, the market scale is expected to reach US $500 million by 2025 and CAGR 5.5 billion in five years 85%。 From the supply side, the main participants of monocrystalline silicon materials for etching are coorstek, SK chemistry and other Japanese and Korean enterprises, and China Thinkon Semiconductor Jinzhou Corp(688233) / developed silicon accounts for about 24% - 28%.
Silicon parts are the core consumables in wafer manufacturing and etching, and there is a large space for domestic replacement.
Silicon components are the core consumables in the wafer manufacturing and etching process. On average, the silicon components that are lost need to be replaced every 200 wafers processed. According to the production capacity of Chinese wafer factories, we expect the market scale of Chinese silicon components to reach 3.766 billion yuan by 2025 and 24.99% CAGR in five years. From the supply side, at present, 70-80% of the market is monopolized by Japanese and Korean enterprises, and the domestic production rate is only 10-20%. There is a huge space for substitution.
The 8-inch light doped silicon wafer market is small and beautiful, and Chinese enterprises have not yet set foot in this field.
According to the production capacity data of China's wafer factories, the market scale of 8-inch light doped silicon wafer in 2020 is about US $209 million. It is estimated that the market scale will reach US $277 million by 2025 and the five-year CAGR will be 5.80%. Although China National Silicon Industry Group Co.Ltd(688126) , Hangzhou Lion Electronics Co.Ltd(605358) has formed a large-scale silicon wafer revenue, the above-mentioned enterprises are mainly engaged in the production of 12 inch silicon wafer and 8-inch heavily doped silicon wafer. Therefore, for the 8-inch lightly doped silicon wafer market, Chinese enterprises have less layout and lack competitiveness.
Investment advice
The company is the global leader in monocrystalline silicon materials. It is estimated that the operating revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 680 / 929 / 1132 million yuan respectively, and the three-year CAGR will be 33.69%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is RMB 289 / 381 / 451 million respectively, the three-year CAGR is 27.33%, and the corresponding PE is 40 / 30 / 26x respectively. The stock price range of absolute valuation method of the company is 83.01-122.74 yuan; At the same time, combined with the industry average PE and the company's historical PE, the company will be given 55 times PE in 2022, corresponding to the target price of 99.46 yuan; To sum up, the "buy" rating is given for the first coverage, and the target price is 99.49 yuan.
Risk tips
Downstream demand is lower than expected / silicon wafer R & D progress is lower than expected / covid-19 epidemic will reduce demand and other risks.
