Jingke energy (688223)
The company issued the annual report of 2021 and the performance forecast of 2022q1, and the performance met the expectations; The company's integrated capacity expanded rapidly and actively laid out TOPCON battery technology; Maintain the overweight rating.
Key points supporting rating
The year-on-year increase of 10% in 2021 is in line with the expectation: the company released the annual report of 2021, achieved an annual revenue of 40.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.53%, and realized a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 1.141 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.59%; Deduct non-profit 531 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 41.74%. Among them, 2021q4 achieved a profit of 420 million yuan, an increase of 46.31% year-on-year and 169.21% month on month; Deduct 238 million yuan of non-profit, a year-on-year decrease of 32.91% and a month on month increase of 159.25%. The company's performance is consistent with the express.
2022q1 profit is expected to increase by 58% - 74%: the company also released 2022q1 performance forecast, with an expected profit of 380420 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57.63% - 74.22%; Deduct 280320 million yuan of non-profit, with a year-on-year increase of 261.46% - 313.09%. Previously, the company announced that the total shipment volume of 2022q1 is expected to be 7.5-8gw.
In 2021, the shipment of components increased steadily, and the profitability was under slight pressure: in 2021, the price of raw and auxiliary materials such as upstream silicon materials increased sharply. The company strategically reduced the execution of low-cost component orders, and the utilization rate of component capacity decreased. The shipment of 22.23gw in the whole year increased by 18.45% year-on-year. The gross profit margin of component business decreased by 1.69 percentage points to 13.40%.
Breakthroughs in R & D and mass production of TOPCON: in 2021, the company made breakthroughs in R & D in the field of n-type TOPCON, and the conversion efficiency of self-developed and designed large-area n-type TOPCON battery reached 25.4%. At the same time, the mass production efficiency of battery is 24.5%, and the mass production efficiency of components is up to 22.3%, and the yield is close to perc battery products.
The integrated production capacity continues to expand, and the total shipment target in 2022 is 35-40gw: the company also announced that it plans to use the IPO over raised funds to build the phase II project of 8GW new Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) high-efficiency battery and the square cutting project with an annual output of 20GW. According to the company's business plan, the production capacity of silicon wafers, batteries and components is expected to increase to 50gw, 40gw and 60GW by the end of 2022. In 2022, the annual total shipment volume (including components, battery chips and silicon chips) is targeted at 35-40gw.
Valuation
Under the current share capital, combined with the company's annual report, new technology progress and the relationship between industry supply and demand, we adjusted the company's predicted earnings per share from 2022 to 2024 to 0.27/0.44/0.59 yuan (originally predicted to be 0.27/0.44 / - yuan from 2022 to 2024), corresponding to a P / E ratio of 39.0/24.2/18.2 times; Maintain the overweight rating.
The main risks faced by rating and price competition exceed expectations; International trade friction risk; The decrease of material cost is not as expected; Technical iteration risk; Photovoltaic policy risk; Exchange rate fluctuation risk; The impact of covid-19 epidemic exceeded expectations.
