Macro: the US interest rate hike is expected to advance, and China’s manufacturing index rebounded for two consecutive months. Recently, Brad of the Federal Reserve said that in order to deal with inflation, it is expected to raise interest rates as soon as March and then start the table contraction. At the same time, the Fed meeting pointed out that considering the prospects of economy, labor market and inflation, it is necessary to raise the federal funds rate in advance, and the rate of reduction can be faster than that of the previous cycle. China: China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) was 50.3% in December, up 0.2 percentage points from November, higher than the critical point, and the manufacturing boom continued to pick up.
Steel: the resumption of production of steel enterprises continues, but it is still limited by the expectation of the Winter Olympic Games. This week, the output of rebar increased significantly by 2.71% month on month, and the consumption increased significantly by 9.92% month on month. The resumption of production of steel enterprises continued this week. According to Mysteel data, the capacity utilization rate of thread steel in the long process of this week was 68.0%, with a significant increase of 3.01pct month on month. However, the resumption speed of steel enterprises is still limited by the expectation of the Winter Olympic Games. The resumption of production of steel enterprises in some areas is slow.
New energy metals: the price of lithium carbonate has exceeded 300000 yuan / ton. It is suggested to pay attention to the subsequent rebound opportunities of the plate. In terms of lithium, the price of 56.5% domestic lithium hydroxide this week was 242500 yuan / ton, a significant increase of 8.99% month on month; The price of domestic 99.5% battery grade lithium carbonate was 302000 yuan / ton, a significant increase of 9.82% month on month. In terms of nickel, LME nickel spot settlement price this week was USD 20900 / T, with a slight decrease of 0.12% month on month.
Industrial metals: the price trend of copper and aluminum continues to differentiate, and the profit of electrolytic aluminum continues to rise. This week, the TC / RC of copper smelters increased significantly by 1.64% month on month, the global refined copper output and primary refined copper output decreased slightly in September, the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum remained high at 88% in October, and decreased slightly by 1.24pct month on month; In terms of inventory, LME copper inventory decreased significantly month on month, and LME aluminum inventory decreased significantly month on month; In terms of price, the current price of LME copper decreased slightly by 0.79% month on month, and the current price of LME aluminum decreased slightly by 0.43% month on month; In terms of profits, the profits of electrolytic aluminum in Xinjiang, Yunnan, Shandong and Inner Mongolia increased month on month this week.
Kim: the Fed’s interest rate hike is expected to strike again, and the price of precious metals is under pressure. This week, Comex gold price decreased slightly by 1.05% month on month, and the number of non-commercial net long positions in gold decreased slightly by 0.84% month on month; This week, the yield of us 10-year Treasury bond was 1.76%, up slightly by 0.24pct month on month.
Investment proposal and investment object
Steel: for ordinary steel, it is recommended to pay attention to the listed companies with low carbon emission intensity and energy consumption per ton of steel on the one hand, and Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) (000708, buy), Fangda Special Steel Technology Co.Ltd(600507) (600507, not rated), Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) (000932, buy), and the listed companies with low Pb on the other hand, such as Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) (600808, not rated), Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) (600782, not rated), Angang Steel Company Limited(000898) (000898, not rated) Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co.Ltd(000825) (000825, not rated); For special steel, it is suggested to pay attention to special material suppliers of new energy nuclear power and wind power, such as Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) (002318, buy).
New energy metals: it is recommended to pay attention to Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) (002460, not rated), Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) (002756, bought), Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) (000792, not rated) and other lithium rich enterprises.
Copper: it is suggested to pay attention to Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) (601899, not rated) benefiting from the increase of smelting processing fee and sulfuric acid price; And lithium battery copper foil manufacturers: Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) (688388, not rated), Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) (600110, not rated), etc.
Aluminum: it is recommended to pay attention to Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) (000807, not rated), Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) (601677, bought), and high-end aluminum enterprises ( Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) (600219, not rated), Shanghai Huafon Aluminium Corporation(601702) (601702, bought).
Jin: it is suggested to pay attention to industry leaders Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) (601899, not rated), Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) (600547, not rated), Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) (000603, not rated), etc.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic growth slowed down; Price fluctuation of raw materials
