\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 612 Lancy Co.Ltd(002612) )
Key investment points
Performance overview: 21 year-on-year revenue + 27%, net profit attributable to parent company + 32%
In 21 years, the company achieved: 1) revenue / net profit attributable to parent company / deduction of net profit not attributable to parent company of RMB 3.67/1.9/180 billion, with a year-on-year increase of + 27% / + 32% / + 82%. The high increase in net profit deducted from non parent company is mainly due to the 20-year low base (the increase in non recurring profit and loss of the company caused by the income from equity disposal of L & P company + the income from disposal of Akbar in Korea). 21 Q4 company realized: revenue / net profit attributable to parent company / deduction of net profit not attributable to parent company of RMB 1.01/0.3/0.30 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 15% / – 68% / – 54%.
By business: in the past 21 years, women’s clothing / medical beauty / Green babies and children achieved an income of RMB 1.69/11.2/820 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 28% / + 38% / + 20%, and the revenue accounted for 46% / 31% / 22%.
Profitability: the recovery of the profitability of the clothing sector has boosted the net interest rate, and the cost side is well controlled
21 years: 1) the gross profit margin is 57.0% (+ 2.9pp), of which the gross profit margin of women’s clothing / medical beauty / green baby children is 61.1% / 51.8% / 55.7% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 7.4 / – 2.5 / + 0.9pp. 2) Expense ratio: the sales / management / R & D expense ratio was 39.9% / 7.7% / 3.1% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.9 / – 0.5 / – 0.1pp. 3) The net interest rate is 6.2% (+ 1.4pp). The increase in the net interest rate is mainly due to the repair of the profitability of women’s clothing business and the superposition of baby business to turn losses into profits. 21q4:1) gross profit margin 58.8% (+ 3.9pp). 2) Expense ratio: the sales / management / R & D expense ratio was 43.0% / 7.4% / 3.6% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 7.4 / + 0.8 / – 0.7pp. 3) Net interest rate: 7.4% (- 2.6pp).
Medical beauty accelerated its expansion, and its profits were under pressure; The clothing business was well repaired after the epidemic
Yimei: the 31% increase in revenue is in line with expectations, and the profit is under pressure due to the impact of new institutions. In 21 years, the company’s business income / net profit of medical beauty reached 1.12/37 billion yuan, and the decline in net profit was mainly due to the impact of the new high-tech Milan hospital and the expansion of Jingfu store. The income / net profit of high tech Milan in 21 years was 8049 / – 49.97 million yuan; The revenue of 9 new crystal skin companies was 11.03 million yuan (of which 5 were opened in 21q4), which affected the profit performance. It is expected that in 22 years, with the continuous incubation of high-tech Milan and Jingfu store, Yimei’s profits are expected to be repaired rapidly.
1) according to the business division, the three brands go hand in hand. Milan Baiyu / Jingfu Yimei / Gao Yisheng’s 21-year income was RMB 700 / 260 / 160 million, a year-on-year increase of + 34% / + 60% / + 25%, accounting for 63% / 23% / 14% of Yimei’s revenue.
2) according to the development stage, the performance of old institutions has increased steadily. In the 21st year, the establishment of three-year-old institutions / secondary new institutions / new institutions that have operated for 1-3 years have a revenue of RMB 820 / 2.9/0.1 billion, and the income of medical and American institutions accounts for 73% / 26% / 1%. Among them, Sichuan Milan / Sichuan Jingfu, a representative old institution, contributed 460 / 90 million yuan in revenue (with an increase of 21% / 41%), with a net interest rate of 14% / 18%, and the average net interest rate of old institutions reached 13.4%.
3) in terms of region: langzi continues to promote the double track development strategy of “Southwest encryption + national layout”. In the past 21 years, the company has 5 medical beauty hospitals and 23 outpatient departments, and the newly established 9 Jingfu outpatient departments cover Chengdu, Chongqing, Xianyang and Changsha. In addition, Lanzi continues to accelerate the incubation of in vitro high-quality medical American standards through M & a funds. Up to now, Lanzi has established six funds with a cumulative scale of 2.76 billion yuan. At present, its in vitro institutions cover Beijing, Nanjing, Wuhan, Kunming and other places.
Women’s Clothing & Baby Business: the profitability of women’s clothing business has been repaired well, and the baby business has turned from loss to profit.
1) women’s wear business: online channels have increased rapidly, and the income and profit level have returned to the level before the epidemic. Women’s clothing contributed 1.69 billion yuan in 21 years (28% more than 20 years and 12% more than 19 years); The gross profit margin was 61.1% (an increase of 7.4pp over 20 years and 1.2pp over 19 years). In the future, the company will continue to scale up online channels and give full play to the advantages of digital operation. In 21 years, the revenue of online channels will be 330 million yuan, with a growth rate of 42%, of which the payment amount of Lanzi / Rhine tmall store will increase by more than 50% / 70%.
2) infant and child business: the income in the 21st year is 820 million yuan (+ 20%), turning losses into profits. By optimizing sales channels, the company has maintained a good growth in self operated / online channel revenue, which were 580 million yuan / 70 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 27% / 49%. In addition, the market share of China’s children’s wear market will be increased by adjusting China’s main brands to match consumer demand.
Profit forecast and Valuation:
It is estimated that the company will realize an operating revenue of 4.2/4.8/5 billion yuan in 22-24 years, with a year-on-year increase of 14% / 16% / 14%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 0.20/2.9/350 billion, a year-on-year increase of +7%/+42%/+22%. The current market value corresponding to PE is 55 / 39 / 32 times respectively. We believe that the industry in which the company’s medical beauty business is located is developing rapidly. The medical beauty assets of Lanzi are of high quality and scarce in a shares. Considering the valuation and growth, we maintain the “overweight” rating.
Risk tips: 1) the epidemic affects the retail environment and weakens the consumption ability of customer groups; 2) The cultivation progress of new medical and American institutions was less than expected.
