\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 221 Oriental Energy Co.Ltd(002221) )
Event:
Oriental Energy Co.Ltd(002221) issue annual report:
1) in 2021, the operating revenue reached 26.367 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.33%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.140 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.82%.
2) 2021q4: the revenue was 4.921 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.07%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 182 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.39%.
Key investment points:
The stripping of LPG business caused a decline in revenue and the upward trend of cost side eroded the profit margin. With the gradual divestiture of the company’s LPG trading business, the company’s LPG trading revenue was 15.8 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 23.42%. In 2021, propylene achieved an operating revenue of 1.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.61%; Polypropylene achieved an operating revenue of 8.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.79%. It is mainly due to the increase of propylene and polypropylene output and the increase of unit price, which are 16.48% / 11.73% higher than that in 2020. Hydrogen and other by-products achieved an operating revenue of 262 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 75.63%, mainly due to the increase in hydrogen sales. Affected by the rising import price of liquefied petroleum gas products, the unit cost of propylene and polypropylene in 2021 was 5444 yuan / ton and 6198 yuan / ton respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 18.96% / 23.42%, and the gross profit margin decreased by 7.52% / 1.71%.
New projects continue to be planned, and the production capacity is expected to increase in the future. In 2021, the company’s production expansion was completed successively, realizing the production capacity of 1.8 million tons / year of propylene and 1.8 million tons / year of polypropylene, with the production capacity increased by 50% / 100% respectively; In 2021, the company produced 1624800 tons of propylene and 1319100 tons of polypropylene, with capacity utilization rates of 90.3% and 73.3% respectively. The company strives to build and put into operation Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) T / a propylene (PDH) capacity, 400000 T / a polypropylene (PP) capacity, 200000 t / a synthetic ammonia and supporting facilities within 2022; At the same time, accelerate the construction of 500000 T / a sustainable aviation fuel project, 260000 T / a acrylonitrile and its downstream supporting devices, utilities and auxiliary facilities. The subsequent planned expansion of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) T / a propylene and 800000 T / a polypropylene has achieved energy assessment and environmental assessment indicators, and it is planned to add another 4 million tons of polypropylene capacity in Maoming and other places in the next five years, so as to reach the forefront of the world.
“Green hydrogen” contributes to emission reduction, and the company is expected to become one of the main by-product hydrogen suppliers in China in the future. The company’s propane dehydrogenation (PDH) adopts electric drive technology, which belongs to “green hydrogen”. The annual energy consumption of a set of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons of PDH of the company is 215000 tons of standard coal and 25000 tons of by-product hydrogen, which is equivalent to 163000 tons of standard coal according to the energy efficiency ratio. The annual output of hydrogen in 2021 is 75000 tons, an increase of 25% over 2020. After all the existing planned units are completed, they can produce 350000 tons of hydrogen per year, equivalent to 2.282 million tons of standard coal, equivalent to reducing 5 million tons of carbon dioxide. It has laid a solid foundation for the development of downstream hydrogen energy utilization industry, including the production of green aviation coal, synthetic ammonia and vehicle hydrogen energy with hydrogen.
As the leader of pdh-pp industry and the world’s first-class comprehensive operator of liquefied petroleum gas, the profit forecast and investment rating company covers four sectors: alkane resources, international trade in China, chemical storage, terminal retail and basic petrochemical. With the orderly construction of a set of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) T / a PDH, a set of 400000 T / a PP, a set of 200000 t / a synthetic ammonia and supporting facilities in Maoming phase I, the revenue is expected to increase accordingly with the expansion of production capacity. We estimate that the operating revenue of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 3.025/3.497/3.854 billion respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15% / 16% / 10% respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 1.735/2.417/2.933 billion respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 52% / 39% / 21% respectively. The PE from 2022 to 2024 will be 7.7/5.6/4.6 respectively. It will be covered for the first time and given a “buy” rating.
Risk indicates that the capacity expansion is less than expected; The price of raw materials has risen sharply; Downstream application expansion is less than expected; The aggravation of the epidemic situation affects the operating rate; Sino US trade friction.
