\u3000\u300 Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) 2 Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) )
Event: the company achieved revenue / net profit attributable to parent company / deduction of net profit not attributable to parent company of RMB 13.63/15.3/1.44 billion in 21fy, yoy + 27.7% / + 96.2% / + 166.6%, which is the median value of performance forecast. Among them, the revenue growth rate of q1-4 is 73% / 34% / 19% / 5.6%, the net profit attributable to the parent company is 5.7/7.8/1.6/0.2 billion yuan, yoy + 415% / 178% / – 53% / – 63%. Excluding the impact of impairment provision, the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q4 is about 370 million yuan, yoy-29% under the same caliber.
Both float glass and electronic glass reached new highs, and the expansion of photovoltaic and engineering glass was promoted in an orderly manner
In terms of business, the three pieces of glass (float, photovoltaic and Engineering) achieved a revenue of 11.07 billion yuan, yoy + 27%; Four pieces of glass (plus Electronics) achieved a revenue of 12.75 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.55 billion yuan. ① The revenue of float glass is yoy + 47%, and the net profit is 1.68 billion yuan, yoy + 170%. If calculated with 2.52 million tons (50.4 million heavy containers), the net profit of single container is 33 yuan, yoy + 174%. ② The revenue of photovoltaic glass was the same as that of last year, with a net profit yoy-38%. According to Zhuo Chuang, the current production capacity of photovoltaic glass is 3470t / d. according to the current plan, the production capacity is expected to reach 11870t / d after all production. ③ The revenue of engineering glass was yoy + 24%, and the net profit decreased by 76% year-on-year due to the high price of the original film throughout the year and the impairment of RMB 100 million; The sales volume was 39.5 million square meters, yoy + 14.8%. From the perspective of expansion plan, the current production capacity of engineering glass is nearly 65 million square meters (finished product caliber). With the release of production capacity in Wujiang and the upgrading of production capacity in Tianjin base, the production and sales of follow-up engineering glass are still expected to grow rapidly. ④ The revenue of electronic display business is 1.9 billion yuan, yoy + 75%, and the net profit after impairment of 180 million yuan is yoy + 46%; Among them, the sales volume of electronic glass is 270000 tons, yoy + 374%. The product structure of electronic glass is constantly upgraded and has entered the fast lane of development.
The annual gross profit margin reached a historically high level, the cost side price rose, and the Q4 profit level declined
The gross profit margin of 21fy company was 35%, year-on-year + 4.8pct. Among them, Q1-Q4 are 37.3% / 37.9% / 37.4% / 27.6% respectively. With the rapid rise in the prices of soda ash and natural gas and the gradual decline in the demand for glass, the gross profit margin of Q4 has dropped significantly, with a year-on-year decrease of -2.4pct. The average float price of CSG 22q1 was – 4.3% year-on-year and – 0.8% month on month. The price of heavy alkali in 22q1 was + 63% year on year and – 26% month on month. The price of natural gas was + 8.3% year on year and + 10.1% month on month. We expect the gross profit margin in 22q1 to improve month on month and is expected to exceed 30%. In addition, the polycrystalline silicon of 22q1 company has successfully resumed production, with a production capacity of 10000 tons / year. At present, the price of polycrystalline silicon is about 250000 yuan / ton, which is expected to increase the company’s profit this year.
During the period, the expense rate was optimized, and the strong cash flow supported diversified development
The expense rate of 21fy company during the period was 12.37%, a year-on-year decrease of 2pct. Among them, the rates of sales / management / R & D / financial expenses are 2.0% / 5.5% / 3.8% / 1.1%, yoy-0.2 / – 0.7 / – 0.04 / – 1.0pct respectively. The company’s expenses were well controlled, and the net interest rate of 21fy was 11.46%, up 3.79pct year-on-year. The net CFO of 21fy company was 3.9 billion yuan, an increase of 1.17 billion yuan over the same period last year, and the cash to cash ratio was 110.00%, a year-on-year increase of + 1.02pct. Under the high boom of float last year, the company’s cash flow was strong, which further supported the diversified development of the company.
Investment suggestion: the company is an old glass enterprise. With the gradual promotion of electronic and photovoltaic glass, the visibility of subsequent growth is expected to be clearer. We estimate that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years is RMB 2.45/31.7/3.68 billion, corresponding to pe7.7 billion 8 / 6.0 / 5.2, maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the cost rise is higher than expected, the downstream demand is lower than expected, and the acquisition integration is lower than expected
