\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 803 Enn Natural Gas Co.Ltd(600803) )
China's scarce natural gas upstream and downstream integration leader
Relying on ENN group, the company completed asset restructuring by acquiring 32.8% equity of ENN energy in 2020, opened up the whole upstream and downstream industrial chain of natural gas, and became one of the largest clean energy enterprises in China. Gradually focus on the clean energy industry chain through continuous M & A, expansion and divestiture of unrelated businesses.
Outstanding from the company's main business and excellent profit performance. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 116.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.7%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 4.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 94.67%.
Energy transformation boosts demand, and the natural gas industry is booming for a long time
In the context of the dual carbon goal, the transformation of the global energy structure has been accelerated. As the only low-carbon and clean energy in fossil energy, natural gas has a good demand prospect. Over the past 10 years, China's natural gas consumption has grown at a compound annual rate of 11%, much higher than the global average. According to estimates, China's natural gas consumption is expected to reach a peak of 690 billion cubic meters by 2050.
The establishment of the national pipeline network has taken a key step in promoting the reform of the natural gas industry, and will accelerate the construction of "one national network" and the opening of LNG terminals. We believe that large private gas enterprises with industrial chain advantages are expected to benefit from this round of natural gas marketization reform in the long term. Resources and channel advantages boost the rapid development of urban fuel business
The company has a strong ability to obtain resources, especially in terms of international resources. The company holds seven long-term resources, of which four are signed after 2021. Through the synergy of LNG terminal, the company has stronger bargaining power and resource guarantee ability.
The company has the first mover advantage and scale advantage in downstream channels. As the first private enterprise engaged in natural gas supply, its business scope covers more than 20 provinces and cities across the country, promoting the CAGR of the company's urban gas project up to 10% in recent five years. With the improvement of urbanization level, the gasification rate of the company is expected to continue to grow, grasp the opportunity of energy transformation, and the future performance growth can be expected
In the context of the rising demand for LNG in China, the company has the scarce resource of Zhoushan LNG terminal, which brings the following advantages relying on Zhoushan LNG terminal company. 1) drive the rapid development of natural gas direct sales business. Among them, the direct sales volume of natural gas exceeded 4 billion m3 in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 336%. 2) Zhoushan terminal can cooperate with the company's long-term cooperation resource acquisition ability, and improve the utilization rate of terminal facilities while obtaining more long-term cooperation resources.
The dual carbon policy promotes the vigorous development of comprehensive energy business. The company's comprehensive energy business layout has the first mover advantage. As early as 2010, the company began to explore distributed energy projects. In the past three years, the cumulative number of integrated energy projects put into operation has increased from 62 to 150, bringing the company a significant increase in comprehensive energy sales from 2 billion kwh to 19 billion kwh, an increase of nearly 10 times. According to the company's plan, there will be 200 green factories and low-carbon parks to help customers build by 2030.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 4.683 billion yuan, 5.78 billion yuan and 7.554 billion yuan respectively, and the earnings per share (EPS) will be 1.65, 2.03 and 2.65 yuan respectively, corresponding to PE of 9.81, 7.95 and 6.08 yuan respectively. According to the relative valuation method, the reasonable share price of the company is 23.1 yuan, and the current share price is undervalued. Considering the leading position of the company in the field of urban gas and the rapid development of the company's comprehensive energy business and gas source trade business under the carbon neutral vision, the company's performance still has a large growth space, and the "buy" rating is given for the first time.
