\u3000\u30 Beijing Telesound Electronics Co.Ltd(003004) 13 Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) )
Key investment points
Short term performance is under pressure due to factors such as scheduling adjustment in the first quarter of 2022, which is expected to improve in the second quarter
In the first quarter of 2022, the company's revenue was 3.124 billion yuan (a year-on-year decrease of 22.08%), the profit attributable to the parent company was 507 million yuan (a year-on-year decrease of 34.39%), and the non profit was 470 million yuan (a year-on-year decrease of 38.49%). The main reasons for the decline in performance were: first, the epidemic repeatedly affected the content production progress, resulting in the delay of the scheduling of key variety festivals; Second, the impact of high base; In the second quarter, the company's key variety shows such as "sound living", "riding the wind and waves 3" and film and television series will be launched one after another. Among them, the reality show music variety "sound living" has been launched on April 24, with excellent performance. Looking back at the third quarter of 2019, the company also suffered short-term pressure on profits due to variety broadcasting, but the company actively optimized the content and continued innovation to promote the commercial and social value of "sister riding the wind and waves" variety in June 2020. By 2021, the company has 26 program production teams, 29 film and television production teams and 34 "new mang plan" strategic studios to build a content self-control system controlled by the whole process. In 2021, mango TV launched more than 40 self-made variety shows and 170 film and television dramas. The high-quality supply of new variety shows, series variety shows and mango monsoon dramas in 2022 is expected.
In 2021, the revenue of mango TV Internet video, the core business, was RMB 11.26 billion (with a year-on-year increase of 24.29%), the advertising revenue was RMB 5.4 billion (with a year-on-year increase of 31.75%), the revenue of watching content and new business in 2022 was RMB 15.356 billion (with a year-on-year increase of 9.64%), of which the revenue of advertising, members and operators were RMB 5.45 billion, RMB 3.688 billion and RMB 2.12 billion respectively (with a year-on-year increase of 32%, 13.3% and 27%), and the profit attributable to the parent was RMB 2.114 billion (with a year-on-year increase of 6.66%), Deduct non profit of 2.06 billion yuan (an increase of 11.57% year-on-year), and the company will distribute cash dividend of 1.3 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares based on 1.871 billion shares; On the member side, mango TV has 50.4 million effective members (an increase of 39.5% year-on-year), and mango TV has more than 61 million international app downloads, practicing the global expression of Chinese stories and contributing mango strength to the strategic communication system with Chinese characteristics. 2022 will also see the benign growth of advertising and member income driven by the supply of high-quality content. On the new business side, the company's increased investment strategy also meets the needs of users. For example, the investment of Guochao content e-commerce brings growth potential for the new development of subsequent companies in the new track (Xiaomang peak dau reaches 1.26 million, with a cumulative download of 49 million). In 2021, the revenue of content e-commerce is 2.157 billion yuan (an increase of 2.5% over the same period). The characteristics of Guochao content e-commerce are superimposed with the help of mango content gene, and the new business is expected to promote the new revenue of the company.
Culture meets technology, and the new amount of mango yuan universe can be expected
Mango TV launched its digital collection in March 2022 (currently temporarily embedded in mango TV and Xiaomang e-commerce), which is conducive to expanding the influence of mango TV brand. The layout of digital collection platform business is also a preliminary exploration of metauniverse strategy. The follow-up virtual human, VR and content of mango TV are expected. Mangguo ecology will explore the establishment of mango metauniverse platform based on 5g Key Laboratory of the State Administration of radio and television, The value orientation of the combination of scientific and technological strength and craftsman spirit is conducive to mango to occupy a seat in the next communication form competition.
Profit forecast
Give a "recommended" rating. We are optimistic that the company will further improve the level of content innovation and platform operation and promote the steady development of various businesses based on the sustainable self-made ecosystem of content. We expect that the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 17.7 billion yuan, 20.3 billion yuan and 23 billion yuan respectively, the parent company's profit will be 2.59 billion yuan, 3.31 billion yuan and 3.98 billion yuan respectively, the EPS will be 1.38, 1.77 and 2.12 yuan respectively, and the current share price corresponding to PE will be 20.5, 16 and 13 times respectively, Based on the steady growth of new business elasticity of the main business and the brand advantages of industry leaders, the "recommended" investment rating is given.
Risk tips
The risk that the new business exploration is not as expected, the risk that the shadow tour works have not been reviewed, the potential risk caused by the artist's own factors, the risk of inefficient use of raised funds, and the risk of macroeconomic fluctuations.
