\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 779 Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) )
Events
On the evening of April 22, 2022, the company released the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022: the revenue in 2021 was 4.632 billion yuan, an increase of 54.10% and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.199 billion yuan, an increase of 63.96%. In 2022q1, the revenue was 1.415 billion yuan, an increase of 14.10% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 363 million yuan, a decrease of 13.54%.
Key investment points
The goal of 2021 was successfully achieved, and the epidemic disturbance was reported in the first quarter
In 2021, the company’s revenue was 4.632 billion yuan, an increase of 54.10% and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.199 billion yuan, an increase of 63.96%. It is basically consistent with the previous performance express. Among them, the revenue of 2021q4 was 1.21 billion yuan, an increase of 14.1% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 199 million yuan, a decrease of 13.4%. The company successfully completed the goals set in 2021.
In 2022q1, the revenue was 1.415 billion yuan, an increase of 14.10% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 363 million yuan, a decrease of 13.54%. The gross profit margin in 2021 was 84.5% (with an increase of 0.3pct), including 82.83% (with a decrease of 2.6pct) in 2021q4 and 84.92% (with a decrease of 0.1pct) in 2022q1, which was caused by the change of product structure. The net interest rate in 2021 is 25.89% (with an increase of 1.5pct), of which 2021q4 is 16.44% (with a decrease of 5pct) and 2022q1 is 25.63% (with a decrease of 8.2pct). At the end of 2021, the contract liabilities were 959 million yuan, with a ring increase of 88 million yuan and a simultaneous increase of 223 million yuan; At the end of 2022q1, it was 839 million yuan, a decrease of 120 million yuan and an increase of 115 million yuan. The net cash flow from investment activities in 2022q1 was – 316 million yuan, which was caused by the increase of investment in Qionglai whole industry production base project. The amount of cash flow from operating activities in 2022q1 was 394 million yuan (with a decrease of 36%), which was caused by the increase of cash outflow from other operating activities such as paying market advertising fees, which was greater than the increase of cash inflow from operating activities; Among them, the payment received in 2022q1 was 1.386 billion yuan, an increase of 2.4% at the same time.
Business target for 2022: the main business income will increase by about 15% and the net profit will increase by about 15%.
The volume contribution in the first quarter was greater than the price, and the growth rate of medium-sized liquor exceeded 50%
In terms of products, the main business revenue in 2021 was 4.621 billion yuan, an increase of 54% at the same time; Among them, the revenue of high-end liquor is 4.519 billion yuan, with a simultaneous increase of 54% and a gross profit margin of 85% (+ 0.3pct). We expect the revenue of new collection masters to increase by 60% and the revenue of No. 8 and well platform decoration to increase by 55% respectively. 2021q4 high-end liquor 1.178 billion yuan (with an increase of 14%); In 2021, the revenue of mid-range liquor was 102 million yuan, an increase of 34% at the same time, and the gross profit margin was 60% (- 1PCT). In 2022q1, the revenue of high-grade liquor was 1.36 billion yuan, with a same increase of 12% and a gross profit margin of 85% (with a decrease of 0.3pct); The revenue of mid-range liquor was 41 million yuan, an increase of 57% and the gross profit margin was 67% (an increase of 5pct).
In terms of subregions, China’s revenue in 2021 was 4.587 billion yuan, an increase of 53% at the same time; Foreign revenue was 34 million yuan, an increase of 292%. We expect the revenue of the eight major markets to increase by 61% and the revenue of other markets to increase by 44% before 2021. In 2022q1, China’s revenue was 1.382 billion yuan, an increase of 12% at the same time; The foreign revenue is 19 million yuan. By the end of 2022q1, there were 43 dealers.
In terms of models, the revenue of new channels in 2021 was 342 million yuan, an increase of 11% at the same time, the gross profit margin was 80.5% (- 0.2pct), the number of enterprise group purchases increased rapidly to more than 2000, and the proportion of traceable group purchase sales increased from 30% to 50%; The well platform alliance covers 23 well platform key cities, and the number of group purchases of transaction enterprises exceeds 1100; The sales revenue of distribution channels was 4.279 billion yuan, an increase of 59% at the same time, and the gross profit margin was 85% (+ 0.3pct); The new channel revenue in 2022q1 was 66 million yuan, a decrease of 48% at the same time; The sales revenue of distribution channels was 1.335 billion yuan, an increase of 20% at the same time.
In terms of volume and price, the total sales volume in 2021 will be 11000 tons, an increase of 40% at the same time; The corresponding ton price is 421000 yuan / ton, an increase of 10.6% at the same time; Among them, the sales volume of high-grade wine is 10400 tons (with an increase of 40%), and the corresponding ton price is 435000 yuan / ton (with an increase of 10%); The sales volume of mid-range liquor is 0700 tons (with an increase of 39%), and the corresponding ton price is 146000 yuan / ton (with a decrease of 4%). The total sales volume in 2022q1 is 3300 tons, and the corresponding ton price is 424200 yuan / ton (the same decrease of 0.5%), and the volume contribution is greater than the price.
The equity repurchase has been completed, and the high-end strategy remains unchanged
As of March 28, 2022, the company has completed the repurchase and actually repurchased 1.481 million shares, accounting for 0.30% of the total share capital. The average repurchase price is 114.07 yuan / share and the cost is 169 million yuan. We believe that the company is expected to implement the equity incentive plan as soon as possible.
At present, the company has successfully launched a new collection master; In the first ten days of April this year, the company released the new well platform decoration. The 52 degree recommended retail price is 808 yuan, the 38 degree recommended retail price is 768 yuan, and the target card space is 500800 yuan. At present, the wholesale prices of collection masters, well platform and No. 8 have increased steadily. In 2022, the company will make every effort to do the following work: 1) increase the core growth momentum, take Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) zhenniang No. 8 as the core, expand the penetration of nuclear potential stores and win more traditional channels and banquet shares; 2) continue to implement the strategy of high-end brand, and build the collection and well platform into the Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) core image, strengthen the brand position of Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) high-end Baijiu, continue to cultivate eight core markets, and further promote regional differentiated marketing. Optimize the distribution of dealers, develop group buying dealers, invest customized resources, promote the activities of famous enterprises and banks, and promote the growth of group buying business; 3) Accelerate product innovation and expand the coverage of product upgrading, meet the consumption upgrading scenarios of different price segments, and explore more circle sales opportunities; 4) Continuously improve the business team of high-end products and the ability of consumer cultivation departments, and break through the business development of group purchase, enterprises and circles; 5) Continuously optimize the distribution system and strengthen the value chain management, so that excellent dealers can share more growth Dividends with stores; 6) Build a key city, deeply cultivate and work hard, and continue to maintain the growth of double digits; 7) Optimize the development of e-commerce business, explore new channels and increase growth momentum.
Profit forecast
We are optimistic about the company’s continued development of high-end brand, focusing on the master of collection, focusing on the top eight core markets, and creating one of the top brands of Luzhou Baijiu liquor. We expect that the EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 2.96/3.85/4.90 yuan, and the current share price corresponding to PE will be 27 / 21 / 16 times respectively, maintaining the “recommended” investment rating.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downside risks, the epidemic drag on consumption, the operation of collection masters is less than expected, the upgrading of new products is less than expected, and the performance of the top eight markets is less than expected.
