\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 989 Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) )
Performance
On April 18, the company released its first quarterly report. In the first quarter of 2022, the operating revenue was 6.515 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 1.746 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.06%.
Analysis
In the first quarter, the overall operation was stable, and the product price difference was partially repaired, which was in line with expectations. In the first quarter, the overall business operation of the company was relatively stable. The sales volume of olefin products decreased slightly, but increased by about 9% year-on-year. In the coking business, although the sales volume of coke products decreased slightly, it increased by 12% year-on-year; Compared with the first quarter of 2021, the company's raw material coal prices rose significantly year-on-year, and the prices of gasified coal and coking coal increased by 48% and 128% year-on-year respectively. Affected by the sharp rise in costs, the company's product price difference was compressed to a certain extent. However, due to the overall price supplement by volume, the company's overall performance was relatively stable. At the same time, the company's overall product gross profit margin in the first quarter was about 39%, which was higher than that in the fourth quarter of last year, Although the price difference has returned to the historical high, it has not been repaired.
The double line layout of coking and gasification is expected to further reduce the fluctuation risk of a single product. The company is a leading enterprise in the production of coal chemical industry. The production line layout covers coal coking and coal gasification, and the double-line layout of revenue and the company's coking and gasification will significantly weaken the overall performance of the company affected by the profit fluctuation of a single product. In the first quarter, the company's coke product price remained relatively high, but the coking coal price showed an upward trend. With the adjustment of gasification coal price and the increase of olefin price driven by crude oil price, the company's coal to olefin product price rebounded, smoothing the sharp fluctuations brought by the layout of a single production line. At the same time, the company's self supply in the field of coking coal has greatly reduced the impact of raw material prices on the company's product profits, driving the company to achieve better profit performance relative to the industry.
Photovoltaic hydrogen production projects provide the company with development space and form long-term competitive advantages. Medium and short-term projects continue to be implemented, driving the company to continuously expand its industrial base. With its own forward-looking layout and geographical advantages, the company will replace fossil energy in small quantities through the green hydrogen project, and reduce the impact of products on production costs through continuous technical optimization and scale expansion. In the long run, the company will not only obtain growth space with the help of green hydrogen, but also obtain further competitive advantages in the process of increasing carbon emission costs in the future. In the short term, the company has sustained capacity release. This year, the company's 3 million ton coke project will gradually contribute to the performance. Ningdong phase III, phase IV and Inner Mongolia projects are expected to be implemented one after another, driving the company's sustainable growth.
Investment advice
It is predicted that the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 8.162 billion, 10.221 billion and 11.662 billion, EPS will be RMB 111, 1.39 and 1.59, and the corresponding PE will be 14.5, 11.5 and 10.1 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Risks such as sharp fluctuations in raw material prices, impact of double carbon policy on the approval of new projects, and failure of project commencement to meet expectations.
