The annual production and sales increased year-on-year and ended three consecutive declines: according to the data released by China Automobile Association on January 12, the national automobile production and sales volume completed 2.907 million and 2.786 million respectively in December 2021, with a month on month increase of 12.5% and 10.5% respectively, a year-on-year increase of 2.4% and a decrease of 1.6% respectively. Among them, the output growth rate changed from negative to positive, and the decline in sales volume narrowed by 7.5 percentage points. In 2021, the production and sales of automobiles were 26.082 million and 26.275 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 3.4% and 3.8% respectively, ending the three consecutive declines since 2018.
According to the survey results of “automobile dealer inventory” in December 2021 released by China Automobile Circulation Association, the comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers was 1.43, a year-on-year decrease of 20.6% and a month on month increase of 5.9%. The inventory level rebounded, but it was still below the warning line. Among them, the inventory coefficient of high-end luxury & imported brands was 1.19, up 11.2% month on month; The inventory coefficient of joint venture brands was 1.41, up 2.9% month on month; The inventory coefficient of independent brands was 1.54, up 3.4% month on month. Affected by the shortage of chips, luxury and joint venture brand models were greatly affected in the first half of 2021, and the inventory situation improved significantly by the end of the year.
The annual production and sales of new energy vehicles exceeded 3.5 million, exceeding market expectations: in December, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 518000 and 531000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2 times and 1.1 times respectively. Among them, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles were 434000 and 448000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.1 times; The production and sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles were 84000 and 82000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6 times and 1.2 times respectively; The production and sales of fuel cell vehicles were 627 and 486 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.4 times and 1.1 times respectively. In 2021, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 3.545 million and 3.521 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6 times, and the market penetration reached 13.4%, exceeding the market expectation.
Driven by policy support and supply, the Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile industry chain has gradually matured, diversified new energy vehicle products continue to meet market demand, and new energy vehicles are expected to continue to maintain higher than expected growth in 2022.
The annual sales volume of passenger cars was stable at 20 million, and all four types of models achieved growth: in December, the production and sales of passenger cars were 2.527 million and 2.422 million respectively, with a month on month increase of 13.2% and 10.5% respectively, a year-on-year increase of 8.4% and 2.0% respectively, and the growth rate changed from negative to positive compared with November. In terms of subdivided models, the output of four types of models showed positive growth in December, the sales of cars and SUVs showed positive growth, and the impulse effect at the end of the year was more obvious.
In 2021, the production and sales of passenger cars were 21.408 million and 21.482 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 7.1% and 6.5% respectively, 3.7 and 2.7 percentage points higher than that of the industry. In terms of vehicle segments, the production and sales of cars were 9.908 million and 9.934 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 7.8% and 7.1% respectively; SUV production and sales reached 10.03 million and 10.101 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 6.7% and 6.8% respectively; The production and sales of MPV were 1073000 and 1055000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 6.1% and 0.1% respectively; The production and sales of crossover passenger vehicles were 397000 and 391000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5% and 0.8% respectively.
In December, 1.137 million Chinese brand passenger cars were sold, with a year-on-year increase of 10.0%, accounting for 46.9% of the total passenger car sales, an increase of 3.4 percentage points over the same period in 2020. In 2021, the sales of Chinese brand passenger cars were 9.534 million, a year-on-year increase of 23.1%, accounting for 44.4% of the total sales of passenger cars, a year-on-year increase of 6.0 percentage points.
As China’s passenger car market is gradually changing from incremental market to stock market, competition intensifies, and differentiation will become the main theme of independent brands in the future. Brands with weak technology, slow new car launch and small scale will be gradually eliminated, and the market share will accelerate to concentrate on leading enterprises with brand and technical advantages such as great wall and Geely.
As a result of the national six emission switch, the annual production and sales of commercial vehicles decreased year-on-year: in December, the production and sales of commercial vehicles were 380000 and 364000 respectively, an increase of 7.7% and 10.5% month on month respectively; The year-on-year decline was 25.3% and 20.1% respectively, 6.6 and 10.2 percentage points narrower than that in November. In terms of vehicle types, both passenger cars and trucks showed a decline.
In 2021, the production and sales of commercial vehicles were 4.674 million and 4.793 million respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.7% and 6.6% respectively. According to models, the annual production and sales of passenger cars ended the downward trend of previous years and rebounded. The production and sales showed positive growth year-on-year, and the annual production and sales of freight cars decreased year-on-year.
In December, the sales volume of heavy trucks was 56000, a year-on-year decrease of 49.1%. In 2021, the cumulative sales volume of the heavy truck industry reached 1.395 million, a year-on-year decrease of 13.8%, the first decline in nearly six years. In the second half of 2021, the sales volume of China’s heavy truck market decreased significantly year-on-year due to the switching of national six emission standards, high industrial inventory and other factors; However, the concentration of leading enterprises increased. In 2021, the market share of heavy truck Cr5 enterprises reached 85.6%, 1.7pct higher than that in 2020. Among them, the market share of Faw Jiefang Group Co.Ltd(000800) and Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co.Ltd(000951) enterprises increased by 1.5 and 2.4pct respectively, and the Matthew effect further appeared. Major auto enterprises sold 12000 heavy trucks in December, a year-on-year decrease of 60%, and achieved six consecutive monthly sales; In 2021, the annual sales volume of Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co.Ltd(000951) heavy trucks was 285000, a slight decrease of 3% year-on-year, and the market share was 20.5%, an increase of 2.4pct over 2020. With the passage of time, the negative impact of the national six emission upgrading has been gradually eliminated, and the reasons for the base number in the same period have been superimposed. We judge that the worst time of the heavy truck industry has passed.
Investment suggestion: facing the adverse effects of repeated epidemic and chip shortage, the automotive industry in 2021 still achieved positive growth in production and sales year-on-year, ending the three consecutive downward trend since 2018. Among them, the most outstanding performance is new energy vehicles, with annual sales of more than 3.5 million vehicles, accounting for 13.4% of the market, realizing a high growth exceeding market expectations. New energy vehicles have changed from policy driven to supply driven. We expect that new energy vehicles will continue the high growth trend in 2022. The competitiveness of independent brands has been improved, and the market share in 2021 has increased by 6.0 percentage points over the previous year. In the second half of 2021, the demand of heavy trucks fluctuated greatly due to the switching of national six emission standards, resulting in a decline of 14% in the annual sales volume, but the Matthew effect of the industry appeared and the leading concentration increased; As the negative impact of emission upgrading fades, the heavy truck industry will usher in an inflection point, and leading enterprises will benefit first. Looking forward to 2022, as the negative effects such as chip shortage and raw material price rise gradually fade, the automobile market will show a stable and positive trend, and the annual production and sales will be better than that in 2021. We recommend three main lines:
(1) independent brand leaders with strong new product cycle: Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Byd Company Limited(002594) .
(2) parts enterprises closely related to the electric intelligent industrial chain with high growth certainty: Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Guangdong Senssun Weighing Apparatus Group Ltd(002870) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) .
(3) heavy truck enterprises with increasing market share and expected to usher in a performance inflection point: Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co.Ltd(000951) .
Risk warning: the price of upstream raw materials rises sharply; The impact of the shortage of automotive chips continues; Weak economic growth affects automobile demand.
