\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 327 Shenzhen Fuanna Bedding And Furnishing Co.Ltd(002327) )
Event overview
The company announced that in 2021, the revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company / net profit deducted from non-profit was RMB 31.79/546516 million, with a year-on-year increase of 10.62% / 5.69% / 7.01%, which was lower than expected. The non recurring income was RMB 30 million, mainly government subsidies and investment income; Net cash flow from operating activities / net profit was 142%, up 13 PCT year-on-year, mainly due to the increase in depreciation and the increase in losses from changes in fair value. 21q4 revenue / net profit attributable to parent company / net profit deducted from non-profit was RMB 1.190/2.29/228 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 1% / - 5% / - 6%. The significant slowdown in month on month was mainly due to the provision of lawyer fees and equity incentive fees. 6 yuan for every 10 shares.
22q1 income / net profit attributable to parent company / net profit deducted from non-profit was RMB 670 / 105 / 98 million, with a year-on-year increase of 6.84% / 13.82% / 6.31%. The income accelerated month on month, and was better than that of the same industry under the background of epidemic spread; The growth rate of deducting non net profit was lower than that of net profit, mainly due to the increase of government subsidies.
Analysis and judgment:
Online and franchising slowed down in the second half of the year. (1) According to different channels, the online growth rate is the fastest: in 2021, the company's online / direct / franchise / group purchase and household revenue were 13.23/7.67/814274 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 17% / 10% / 5% / 2%, accounting for 42% / 24% / 26% / 9% respectively. The online share further increased, but slowed down in the second half of the year (21h growth of 23%), in which tmall / JD / vipshop accounted for 33% / 34% / 15%, and the expense rate of JD was lower than tmall 3PCT, However, the return rate of jd.com and vipshop is higher than that of tmall (9.37% / 11% / 6.41%). According to our analysis, the company has significantly contracted franchisees in 19 years, and the profit margin has increased after the price increase. In the first half of the year, the franchisees' motivation to open stores has increased, but the opening of stores has slowed down due to the impact of the epidemic in the second half of the year. (2) From the perspective of endogenous extension, the contribution of opening a store is higher than that of the same store. By the end of the 21st century, the company had 1525 stores (470 Direct stores + 1055 franchisees) and 232 net stores (96 / 136 Direct stores / franchisees). In 2021, the opening of Direct stores / franchisees increased by 8% / 3% year-on-year, so as to launch the effect of Direct stores / the shipment of single franchisees increased by 2% / 2% year-on-year; Among them, the area of direct / franchise stores reached 154 / 203 square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 13% / - 2%.
Online gross profit margin increased and Q4 net profit margin recovered. The increase in net profit margin was due to the increase in gross profit margin and the decrease in selling expense rate. In 2021, the company's gross profit margin was 52.14%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.76pct, mainly due to the adjustment of freight to cost in accounting standards. The online / direct / franchise gross profit margin increased by 2.31 / - 1.13/1.14pct to 46.19% / 65.28% / 50.03% respectively. We analyzed that the increase of online gross profit margin was mainly due to price increase. The gross profit margin of online restoration with the same caliber was 43.88%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.31pct, mainly benefiting from the optimization of product structure; The net interest rate was 17.88%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.35pct. The ratio of sales / R & D expenses decreased by 3.46/0.05pct to 23.09% / 2.39%, but the depreciation and advertising in the sales expenses still increased significantly (both increased by more than 30%), and the ratio of administrative expenses increased by 0.44pct to 7.2%, mainly due to the increase of intermediary expenses by 6 times, the increase of equity incentive expenses by 118%, and the increase of financial expense ratio by 0.37pct to 0.3pct. In 22q1, the gross profit margin decreased by 4pct to 53.12%, and the income tax rate increased by 4.69pct to 22%, but the expense rate decreased by 5.74pct to 33.31%, and the net profit margin still increased by 0.96pct to 15.72%.
Inventory turnover days improved. In 2021, the company's inventory was 812 million yuan, an increase of 7% over the beginning of the year, accounting for 26% of revenue, and the number of inventory turnover days was 185 days, a year-on-year decrease of 30 days; Accounts receivable were 198 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12%, and the turnover days of accounts receivable were 24 days, a year-on-year decrease of 3 days.
Investment suggestions:
According to our analysis, (1) Company 22q1 reflects the consumption toughness of home textile, while the company's direct sales and e-commerce account for about 70%, and the profit elasticity brought by the improvement of discount is greater; We estimate that the company has less than 50 Direct stores and 150180 franchise stores throughout the year. (2) There are many one-time factors in 2021, including the impact of large promotion on gross profit margin, intermediary fees, loss of fair value and reduction of investment income. The net profit side is expected to be light in 2022, but the company may continue to invest in e-commerce and the company may also strategically grab shares, resulting in a slight decline in gross profit margin. Considering the impact of the epidemic, the income of 22 and 23 years was reduced from 3.68/4.08 billion yuan to 3.563/3.986 billion yuan, the new 24-year income was 4.435 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the mother in 22 and 23 years was reduced from 738 / 845 million yuan to 628 / 718 million yuan, the new 24-year net profit attributable to the mother was 818 million yuan, the EPS in 22 and 23 years was reduced from 0.89/1.02 yuan to 0.76/0.87 yuan, the new 24-year EPS was 0.99 yuan, the closing price on April 25, 2022 was 8.05 yuan, and the corresponding PE in 22 / 23 / 24 years was 11 / 9 / 8x respectively, Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The uncertainty of epidemic development, Meijia's strategic investment dragging down performance risk, inventory backlog risk, lower than expected online growth rate and systemic risk.
