\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 508 Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) )
Event: the company announced that the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022 achieved an operating revenue of 10.148 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 24.84%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.332 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.81%. In the first quarter of 2022, the operating revenue was 2.086 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.32%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 368 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.47%.
Core view
The advantages of traditional categories are stable, emerging categories are expanding rapidly, and the layout of multiple channels is advancing steadily. By product, the first, second and third product groups of 2021 company achieved revenue of RMB 7.863/9.30/1.355 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 19% / 36% / 58%. As the core category of the first product group, the range hood achieved a revenue of 4.88 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 19%, and its leading position in the industry was further consolidated. Referring to the statistical data of ovicloud, the boss's online / offline market share of range hood in 2021 was 16.9% / 30.5% respectively (the same score increased by 2.2pct / 0.9pct), ranking first in the industry. As the core categories of the second and third product groups, the integrated steaming and baking machine and dishwasher realized an income of 647 million and 451 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 71% and 101% respectively; According to the statistics of ovicloud.com, the offline market share of boss embedded steaming and baking machine / dishwasher in 2021 was 34.8% / 17.5% (increased by 3.3 / 7.9pct year-on-year respectively), ranking first / second in the market. Sub channels: in 2021, the revenue from direct sales / commission sales / Engineering / distribution / other channels reached 4.647/30.70/19.76/3.80/73 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 39% / 19% / 7% / 10% / 286% respectively. The company adheres to the coordinated development of multiple channels, the rapid development of online direct sales, the continuous deepening of offline channels, and the steady progress of engineering business. The revenue side of 2022q1 company maintained a steady growth trend. Referring to the statistical data of ovicloud, the omni-channel sales of 2022q1 boss range hood fell slightly by 6% year-on-year, while emerging categories such as dishwasher and embedded multifunction peripheral achieved brilliant growth.
The provision for bad debts will release risks in 2021, and the profitability is expected to gradually improve in the future. The gross sales difference of 2021q4 company was 30.31%, with a year-on-year decrease of 3PCT (the gross profit margin decreased by about 1.8pct and the sales expense rate increased by about 1.5pct under the comparable standard). In the same period, the company realized the net profit attributable to the parent company of - 0.35%, with a year-on-year decrease of about 22pct. It was mainly affected by the bad debt provision of customers such as Evergrande (a total of about 778 million yuan). After excluding, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 24.92%, with a year-on-year increase of 3PCT under the comparable standard. The gross sales difference of 2022q1 company was 23.54%, with a year-on-year decrease of about 2pct, mainly due to the pressure on the gross profit margin caused by the high price of raw materials, and the gross profit margin under the same caliber decreased by about 2pct year-on-year; In 2022q1, the net interest rate attributable to the parent company was 17.63%, a year-on-year decrease of 1PCT. With the stabilization and decline of bulk raw material prices in the future, the channel structure of the company is further optimized, the proportion of high gross profit online direct business continues to increase, and the profitability of the company is expected to be gradually repaired.
High quality new products consolidate the leading position of advantageous categories, gradually improve the layout of integrated stoves, and the company has sufficient power for medium and long-term growth. At the end of March 2022, the company released a variety of innovative products that fit the needs of Chinese kitchens, such as ultra-thin range hood, high-capacity steaming and baking machine, washing and eliminating machine, and high-quality new products are expected to further consolidate the leading position of advantageous categories; At the same time, the company has actively arranged integrated stoves and launched 10 new products in two series. Relying on the boss's deep brand and channel advantages, the integrated stoves business is expected to achieve rapid and large-scale production. With reference to the performance assessment objectives of the company's equity incentive plan in 2022 and based on 2021, the CAGR of revenue from 2022 to 2024 is no less than 15%, demonstrating medium and long-term growth confidence.
Combined with the price trend of raw materials, the gross profit margin assumption is appropriately reduced. It is predicted that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 2.157/2.523/2.808 billion respectively (previously predicted to be RMB 2.293/2.531 billion from 2022 to 2023). Combined with the valuation of 16 times P / E ratio of the company in 2022 given by comparable companies, the corresponding target price is RMB 36.36, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The risk of real estate sales falling short of expectations; The impact of sharp fluctuations in raw material prices; Risk of new product development falling short of expectations; Risk of significant increase in sales expense rate
