Key investment points
In December, the year-on-year - 24% of excavator sales was better than CME's expectation, the decline narrowed month on month, and the export increased rapidly
In December 2021, the sales volume of excavators was 24038 units, with a year-on-year increase of - 23.8%, slightly higher than CME's previous expectation (- 28.64%), and the month on month decrease narrowed (November year-on-year decrease of - 36.6%). Among them, 15423 units were sold in China, a year-on-year increase of - 43.5%; 8615 units were exported, with a year-on-year increase of + 104.6% and a month-on-month increase of + 34.0%. In terms of structure, the sales volume of small / medium / large excavation in China in December was 9498 / 3820 / 2105 units respectively, accounting for 61.6% / 24.8% / 13.6% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.7 / - 2.4 / + 0.7pct.
In 2021, 342784 excavators were sold, a year-on-year increase of + 4.6%; Among them, 274357 units were sold in China, a year-on-year increase of - 6.3%; 68427 sets were exported, a year-on-year increase of + 97%; Export sales accounted for 20% of the total sales, maintaining an upward trend. Driven by the recovery of overseas markets and the globalization of domestic brands, exports continued to maintain rapid growth.
Focus on the opportunities of construction machinery industry under the background of Q1 steady growth in 2022
In December 2021, the central economic work conference set the tone of "steady growth". From the government work reports released by various localities and the 2022 work plan released by local development and reform commissions, it has become a key task to actively promote the commencement of project construction and ensure the "good start" of investment in the first quarter. According to incomplete statistics of China Securities Journal, from January 4 to 6, the announced total investment in major projects has exceeded 3 trillion yuan. The first half of 2022 is the stage of forming physical workload of special bond funds. In 2021, Q1 infrastructure investment increased by only 6% compared with the same period in 2019. We pay attention to the acceleration of Q1 infrastructure growth in 2022. In addition, real estate in some regions has been relaxed, and we pay attention to the opportunities of construction machinery industry under the background of steady growth.
Pay attention to the electric wave of the industry in the next five years, and the rhythm is expected to exceed market expectations
Electrification can reduce the whole life cycle cost of construction machinery, transfer the value in the operation stage to the manufacturing end, and improve the technical level of equipment and software, which is conducive to the expansion of market scale and profit margin of the industry. Based on the advantages of saving operating costs and policy support (e.g. no on the road for excessive emission, unlimited travel with green card, tax exemption, etc.), the electrification penetration rate of construction machinery products represented by concrete mixer, muck truck, excavator and loader is expected to achieve leapfrog development in the future.
Investment advice
Recommend [ Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) ] one of the most globally competitive high-end manufacturing leaders in China and look forward to the opportunities in the process of globalization. [ Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) ] crane + concrete machinery is the leader in the post cycle, and the emerging strategic business contributes to a new growth pole. [ Xcmg Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(000425) ] as the leader of truck crane, the mixed reform is expected to greatly release the performance elasticity. [ Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) ] domestic hydraulic parts are scarce, and pump valve + non-standard large-scale force passing through the cycle.
Risk warning: infrastructure real estate investment is less than market expectation; Industry competition intensifies; Global trade disputes
